3/31/11 

As the U.S. and NATO continue to make military gains against the Taliban, the administration is engaged in a robust debate about the size of the planned July 2011 withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. What is clear is that no matter how many troops are withdrawn from the battlefield in July, NATO forces in Afghanistan have reached their peak numbers, meaning that Western military leverage is at its greatest level right now. With that in mind, it's essential to move beyond thinking just about troop numbers and to instead construct a strategy that is effective at shaping Afghanistan after the troop withdrawal.  Such a strategy should take political reform, economic development and regional issues into account and will require a realistic discussion that includes talking to the Taliban as part of the process.

Recent developments show military gains, as U.S. and NATO troop presence is at its peak. The New York Times reports today that, in many places, the Taliban is under great military pressure from U.S. and NATO forces: "The Taliban have been under stress since American forces doubled their presence in southern Afghanistan last year and greatly increased the number of Special Forces raids targeting Taliban commanders. Yet they still control a number of remote districts and in those areas the insurgents can still muster forces to storm government positions, as demonstrated by their capture of a district in Afghanistan's eastern Nuristan Province this week. While there is still some debate over the insurgents' overall strength, Pakistanis with deep knowledge of the Afghan Taliban say that they have suffered heavy losses in the last year and that they are struggling in some areas to continue the fight." Those military gains were confirmed by General David Petraeus, U.S. commander in Afghanistan, earlier this month. Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Gen. Petraeus said, "It is ISAF's assessment that the momentum achieved by the Taliban in Afghanistan since 2005 has been arrested in much of the country and reversed in a number of important areas."  Against this backdrop, and despite pressures to minimize troop withdrawals, today's Washington Post reports that the White House is committed to ensuring that a "...meaningful drawdown (will) start in July."   [NY Times, 3/30/11. David Petraeus, via AP, 3/14/11. Washington Post, 3/31/11]

Military component of the strategy has dominated the debate - but the political, economic and regional strategy for post-2014 is key. U.S. and NATO military operations have significantly degraded the Taliban's capabilities. In order to consolidate those gains, it is vital to strengthen the key sectors of Afghan society and engage regional actors in order to maintain a stable Afghanistan after the American military departs:

Governance. The Center for American Progress states that, "The Afghan government structure is one of the most highly centralized in the world. President Hamid Karzai and the parliament are democratically elected but the system is fundamentally autocratic in nature. The executive branch controls appointments from provincial governors to district police chiefs to mayors and community leaders. It operates on a patronage model in which it distributes resources, access to international funding, and power to individuals in return for their loyalty to the Karzai government. The Afghan public's resentment of this imposition from Kabul and the inherent lack of accountability in the system fuels the insurgency and is a chief means of its mobilization." [CAP, 11/23/10]

The economy. A recent report from the Center for a New American Security points out that, "The economic component of the new strategy should be reshaped to prioritize the improvement of the macro conditions necessary to enable sustained Afghan economic growth. U.S. development activities should enable the acceleration of Afghan private sector growth by focusing on large-scale projects that enable business growth such as communications, power, water, transport and related infrastructure as well as the development of a functioning legal system that makes investment attractive to both Afghan entrepreneurs and foreign investors. Afghanistan's central geographic location in Central Asia positions it well to serve as a conduit for pent-up demand for north-south and east-west trade from across the region." [CNAS, 12/10]

Women's rights. Lakhdar Brahimi, former U.N. envoy to Afghanistan, noted during the release of a recent Century Foundation report that he co-authored, "Women's rights are very, very far behind what these Afghans want them to be. There are still women who burn themselves to death because they are forced to be married. There are still many, many problems. So those struggles are going to continue. They are going to continue whether you have peace or not. I think they will have a much better chance of moving forward, however slowly, in a peaceful environment, than they have now in a war environment." [Lakhdar Brahimi, 3/23/11]

Regional diplomacy. The Center for American Progress report states that, "Afghanistan's neighbors all influence the country's internal political and security  dynamics to varying degrees. Its neighbor Pakistan-with whom it shares a large and fluid border and a history of covert action-is the key player in this regard." Additionally, the CNAS report points out that, "Both China and India - the rising giants of Asia - have deep interests in Afghanistan, politically and economically... Their economic influence in Afghanistan will only grow stronger in the future, and it will have a significant long-term impact on prospects for Afghan economic growth." [CAP, 11/23/10. CNAS, 12/10]

Talks with the Taliban are a crucial component of a successful end-game in Afghanistan. With military momentum and the largest number of troops of the campaign, the time to begin negotiations is now. Reinforcing this view is the conclusion of a report by an international task force brought together by The Century Foundation and co-chaired by two former high-level diplomats, Thomas Pickering and Lakhdar Brahimi. The report explained that: "[W]e believe the best moment to start a political process toward reconciliation is now. For the government's allies, the optimal window would seem to be before their capacities peak, not when force levels have commenced a downward trajectory." Before those talks can happen though, a frank discussion in the U.S. about the realities of talking to the Taliban is needed. The American Security Project's Josh Foust explains, "The political discussion and the Taliban's place in that discussion are vital to the war effort: they will determine whether the fighting drags on into infinity, as many worry, or if we can pursue a less-than-total-victory outcome that, though imperfect, nevertheless accomplishes some of our goals in Afghanistan and allows us some way out. We in the U.S. desperately need to have our own political discussion, talking about talks, before we will be ready to engage with the Taliban. And better to have it now, while we still have power and troops and influence in Afghanistan and can affect the eventual outcome, rather than in 2014, when we will have all the disadvantages with no strengths." [The Century Foundation, 3/23/11. Joshua Foust, 3/29/11]

What We're Reading

The CIA inserted teams of covert operatives into Libya to gather intelligence for military airstrikes and to contact and vet the beleaguered rebels battling Qaddafi's forces, according to American officials.

Libya's Foreign Minister, Moussa Koussa, has defected from Qaddafi's government and handed himself over to British authorities in London.

Egypt's military rulers announced that the country's first presidential elections since the ouster of longtime ruler Hosni Mubarak will be held by November, giving the country's emerging political groups up to eight months to organize.

A long-lasting radioactive element has been measured at levels that pose a long-term danger at one village 25 miles from the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

The head of one of Yemen's most influential Islamist political parties told the BBC that President Ali Abdullah Saleh must leave the country, not just step down from power.

Kosovo President Behgjet Pacolli has resigned after a top court ruled his election invalid following accusations of irregularities.

During the final stages of his visit to Cuba, former President Jimmy Carter said that the decades-long U.S. trade embargo and travel ban damaged the Cuban people and hindered, rather than helped reform.

Canadian authorities arrested a man accused of seeking to travel to Somalia to join the militant group al-Shabab.

A letter bomb exploded at the office of a Swiss nuclear industry lobbying group, slightly injuring two employees.

The head of one of Pakistan's leading Islamist parties, cleric Fazl-ur-Rehman, narrowly avoided a probable assassination attempt when a bomb exploded near his vehicle in the northwest of the country.

Commentary of the Day

Fareed Zakaria writes that the United States is taking on broader ownership of the Libyan conflict and warns of mission creep.

Matthew Duss says that the Obama administration's victory in support of Iranian human rights is in danger of being significantly undercut by the possible removal of the Mujahideen-e Khalq from the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations.

Yan Xuetong debates whether China should abandon its traditional low profile.