3/15/11

The Arab revolts across the Middle East are presenting a kaleidoscope from a constitutional referendum in Egypt, accountability in Tunisia and reforms in Morocco to civil war in Libya and crackdown in Bahrain. Peaceful transformation and violence will coexist in the region for months or years to come - and U.S. policy must respond fluidly to balance core values and its interests, avoiding grandiose rhetoric and cookie cutter approaches. Bipartisan support for this approach is fundamental but risks disruption from a few past and future presidential hopefuls seeking to inject politics into one of the defining events of our day. 

Peaceful transformation, violent revolution and everything in between will coexist in the Middle East for some time to come. In Libya, forces loyal to Muammar Qaddafi continue to battle rebels on two fronts. Saudi security forces entered Bahrain to put down pro-democracy demonstrations by the Shia majority. Yemen last Friday saw demonstrations by more than 100,000 people demanding that President Ali Abdullah Saleh step down.

At the same time, the King of Morocco announced a sweeping set of reforms "that include a more independent judiciary, an ‘accelerated evolution' of direct local elections, and other constitutional changes allowing greater human and gender rights," according to the Christian Science Monitor. Egyptians will vote on changes in the constitution this weekend; some groups say the changes don't go far enough. And as Tunisia struggles to manage the refugee flows from Libya, Tunisian authorities have detained three senior officials who were close to ousted President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, including two of his top advisers. Center for American Progress Senior Fellow Brian Katulis writes, "All of this adds up to 2011 shaping up to be a more complicated year for the Obama administration in the Middle East, and one with no easy answers and quite likely a great deal of uncertainty in the months ahead." [NY Times, 3/15/11.  Christian Science Monitor, 3/10/11. Brian Katulis, 2/23/11]

Required:  A careful balance of both U.S. interests and values.   

Attention to enduring interests:  Tom Carothers, vice president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, lays out a set of strategic considerations:  "Concerns over oil supplies undergird a continuing strong attachment to the Persian Gulf monarchies. The need for close cooperation on counterterrorism with many of the region's military and intelligence services fuels enduring ties. Washington's special relationship with Israel prompts fears of democratic openings that could result in populist governments that aggressively play the anti-Israel card. Given the complex mix of U.S. interests and the probable variety of political outcomes in the region, U.S. policy is unlikely to coalesce around any unified line."  [Thomas Carothers, 3/10/11]

Ability to multitask: Brian Katulis writes, "The Obama administration will need to multitask as it responds to fast-moving events in multiple countries and works to help these societies deal with overwhelming political, economic, social, and demographic problems. In addition to the new uprisings, the administration will need to continue dealing with the other major challenges that existed long before the uprisings-the Arab-Israeli conflict, Iran's nuclear program, Iraq's reintegration into the Middle East, and ongoing threats from terrorist groups based in the region." [Brian Katulis, 2/11]

Letting Arab citizens, not U.S., own the public process: Fareed Zakaria writes that, "Obama has had a quieter approach, supporting freedom but insisting that the United States did not intend to impose it on anyone. As unsatisfying as this might have been as public rhetoric, it has had the effect of allowing the Arab revolts of 2011 to be wholly owned by Arabs. This is no small matter, because the success of these protests hinges on whether they will be seen as organic, indigenous, national movements." CFR's Stephen A. Cook adds a cautionary note about the shape of assistance programs:  "Washington's message should focus exclusively on first-order principles: non-violence, tolerance, pluralism, and accountability. It also requires that the United States hew carefully to the needs Egyptians themselves articulate." [Fareed Zakaria, 2/24/11.  Stephen A. Cook, 3/9/11]

Make policy on a "country-by-country basis": Les Gelb, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations suggests: "make policy on a country-by-country basis, paying close attention to each country's special history and culture. A grand and brand new strategy will only blur critical distinctions and confuse friend and foe alike." [Les Gelb, 2/22/11]

Strategic patience for democracy to take shape: As Secretary of State Hillary Clinton explained before the United Nations Human Rights Council last month, democracy is not a quick and simple process; it must come from within and is based off of effective institutions, a vibrant civil society and economic opportunity for all. [Hillary Clinton, 2/28/11]

Broad bipartisanship marred by rhetoric from 2012 contenders. As the U.S. faces economic uncertainty and a Japanese ally in crisis in addition to the Middle East challenges, conservatives from John Boehner to George Will have spoken out in support of the administration's response.  Several past and future presidential contenders, however, have fired off knee-jerk reactions that show little understanding of the complexity of the situation. On Libya, presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich said he wanted the U.S. to start bombing Libya "this evening." Ignoring the public concern that the U.S. not enter a third conflict in the Middle East alone, he said "We don't need to have NATO," of our longstanding allies, "who frankly, won't bring much to the fight. We don't need to have the United Nations." Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) suggested a no-fly zone could be set up by simply saying it exists. As the Hill reports, "Even signaling an intent to set up a no-fly zone over Libya would act as a ‘strategic deterrent' that could keep Libyan military pilots from following orders to fire on opposition members, McCain said." Defense Secretary Robert Gates called this "loose talk."

And presidential contender Mike Huckabee seems to believe - contrary to Egypt's citizens and military - that President Mubarak could have stayed in office:  "[Supporting Mubarak] would not have required us to approve everything he did, or deny the rights of the people of Egypt to demand a change of government." [Richard Lugar, 3/14/11. George Will, 3/13/11. Newt Gingrich, via the Progress Report, 3/14/11. The Hill, 3/3/11. Mike Huckabee, via ABC News, 2/2/11]

What We're Reading

Japan faces the growing risk of a nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power station.

As the military forces of Col. Muammar Qaddafi continued to advance, the Libyan leader told the rebels that their only options were to surrender or flee.

Iranian officials denounced the move by Saudi Arabia and the UAE to send fifteen hundred troops into Bahrain.

North Korea agreed to accept the repatriation of 27 out of 31 of its citizens who drifted into South Korea on a fishing boat.

Italy blocked a ferry carrying 1,800 refugees fleeing the violence in Libya from docking in Sicily.

Germany has temporarily shut down seven of its nuclear power plants while it reconsiders its nuclear strategy.

Fighters loyal to Ivory Coast's President-elect Alassane Ouattara launched attacks on forces of Laurent Gbagbo in the capital of Abidjan.

Mahamadou Issoufou, the candidate from the Social Democratic Party, won the presidential run-off in Niger with nearly 60 percent of the vote.

The U.S. has urged Haiti's former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide to delay his return from exile until after the upcoming presidential elections.

Cuba is devaluing its currency by about 8 percent compared to the U.S. dollar as part of efforts to revive the economy.

Commentary of the Day

The New York Times says the unfolding Japanese tragedy should prompt Americans to study our plans for coping with natural disasters and potential nuclear plant accidents.

Barbara Slavin argues that the United States must have broad regional and international support for any action in Libya.

Brian Whitaker explains how the Arab regimes cannot hold out indefinitely against revolution.

Ambassador Mark Green writes we can be fiscally responsible and still make the critical investments we need in our International Affairs Budget by modernizing our International Affairs programs with a greater emphasis on transparency, accountability and effectiveness.