3/9/11 

With international focus currently on Libya, it's easy to forget that there are a multitude of protests and movements taking place across the Middle East and North Africa. While each has its own distinct implications for the people of those countries and each was sparked by different circumstances, it is clear that U.S. interests in the region will be impacted both in the immediate term, on issues such as counterterrorism, and in the long run, on a much broader set of shared interests.  The U.S. has rightly played a flexible role - ensuring that these revolts continue to be about the internal dynamics of each country and not about the U.S. What is becoming more evident daily is that while the changing environment in the Middle East and North Africa will deliver immediate challenges to U.S. interests caused by disruption to longstanding American relationships in the region, the prospect of deeper changes that create more legitimate governments in the region can help advance American security interests  in the long term.

The revolts in the Middle East and North Africa have been sparked by circumstances unique to each country in the region.

Tunisia. "The revolt was triggered when an unemployed college graduate set himself ablaze after police confiscated his fruit cart, cutting off his source of income. Protesters complained about high unemployment, corruption, rising prices and political repression.

An interim government came to power after an uprising prompted autocratic President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to leave the country on January 14. Those demonstrations helped spark protests around North Africa and the Middle East." [CNN, 3/9/11]

Egypt.  "Complaints about police corruption and abuses were among the top grievances of demonstrators who forced President Hosni Mubarak from office. Demonstrators also were angry about Mubarak's 30-year rule, a lack of free elections and economic issues, such as high food prices, low wages and high unemployment. Since Mubarak's departure, several thousand people have protested in Cairo's Tahrir Square to urge Egypt's new rulers to implement promised reforms. They pressed Egypt's Supreme Council to end an emergency law and release political prisoners, among other things. They also demanded civilian representation in government." [CNN, 3/9/11]

Libya.  "Protests in Libya started in February when demonstrators, fed up with delays, broke into a housing project the government was building and occupied it. Gadhafi's government, which has ruled since a 1969 coup, responded with a $24 billion fund for housing and development. A month later, more demonstrations were sparked when police detained relatives of those killed in an alleged 1996 massacre at the Abu Salim prison, according to Human Rights Watch. High unemployment and demands for freedom have also fueled the protests." [CNN, 3/9/11]

Yemen.  "Protesters have called for the ouster of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has ruled Yemen since 1978. The country has been wracked by a Shiite Muslim uprising, a U.S.-aided crackdown on al Qaeda operatives and a looming shortage of water. High unemployment fuels much of the anger among a growing young population steeped in poverty. The protesters also cite government corruption and a lack of political freedom. Saleh has promised not to run for president in the next round of elections." [CNN, 3/9/11]

Saudi Arabia. "Demonstrators have demanded the release of Shiite prisoners they feel are being held without cause. Others have taken to the streets over the creation of a constitutional monarchy, more rights and other reforms. Late last month, King Abdullah announced a series of sweeping measures aimed at relieving economic hardship and meeting with Bahrain's beleaguered monarch." [CNN, 3/9/11]

Bahrain. "Protesters initially took to the streets of Manama to demand reform and the introduction of a constitutional monarchy. But some are now calling for the removal of the royal family, which has led the Persian Gulf state since the 18th century. Young members of the country's Shiite Muslim majority have staged protests in recent years to complain about discrimination, unemployment and corruption, issues they say the country's Sunni rulers have done little to address. The Bahrain Center for Human Rights said authorities launched a clampdown on dissent in 2010. It accused the government of torturing some human rights activists." [CNN, 3/9/11]

Not about the U.S.,  and experience shows that it's important to keep it that way. Conservative columnist Anne Applebaum wrote yesterday that, "I'm listening hard, but I just can't hear the ‘voices around the world' that my colleague Charles Krauthammer said last week are ‘calling for U.S. intervention to help bring down Moammar Gaddafi.' It's true that John Bolton, former U.N. ambassador and present Fox News employee, has declared that ‘strong American words (and actions) were amply warranted' in Libya. It's also true that a clutch of American politicians and writers have come out in favor of a similarly muscular response as well. But outside America's borders, all is silent. Certainly nobody in the Arab world is clamoring for American military intervention, or indeed any American intervention: Egyptian democrats are even wary of taking our development money... Why the Arab anxiety about American and Western help? Why the reluctance among our allies? The answer can be summed up in a single word: Iraq. Far from setting ‘an example for the entire region,' as Krauthammer put it, Iraq serves as a dire warning: Beware, for this could be the fate of your country. When the U.S. Army entered Iraq, we knew nothing about the Iraqi opposition, except what we'd heard from a couple of exiles. Our soldiers didn't speak Arabic and hadn't been told what to do once they got to Baghdad. Chaos followed incompetence, which begat violence: Tens of thousands of people died in an eight-year civil war. Although a fragile democracy has emerged, this isn't an example anyone, anywhere, wants to follow." As Les Gelb, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, writes today about the situation in Libya, "As the administration weighs its choices, I have one last plea: Please, Mr. President, don't make policy on a daily basis to please howling senators or the maniacal voices on cable news. They won't pay for the consequences of their words. You and the American people will." [Anne Applebaum, 3/8/11. Les Gelb, 3/9/11]

America's counterterrorism efforts in the region will change, with new challenges in the near term, yet a potential strategic blow to al Qaeda in the long run. The Washington Post reported yesterday that, in the near term, "The turmoil has emerged as a source of concern for U.S. counterterrorism officials, scrambling partnerships that have been critical to operations against al-Qaeda, even though the long-term prospect of democratic reform in the region is seen as a potential setback to the terrorist group. The popular revolts have led to the ouster of a stalwart counterterrorism ally in Egypt and have threatened an autocrat who has allowed the United States to use drones and special operations troops to hunt al-Qaeda operatives in Yemen. Seemingly stable monarchies such as those in Saudi Arabia and Jordan are being forced to sharpen the focus of their intelligence and security services on internal unrest. And even one of the main U.S. adversaries in the region, Libya's Moammar Gaddafi, distrusted al-Qaeda and occasionally provided intelligence to the CIA."

In the long run, Fareed Zakaria is optimistic about the possibilities: "the Arab revolts of 2011 represent a total repudiation of al Qaeda's founding ideology. Think about it. For 20 years al Qaeda has said that the regimes of the Arab world are quasi-dictatorships and that the only way to overthrow them is to support al Qaeda and its terrorism. And then, in a few weeks, the people of the Arab world have overturned two despotic governments by means of nonviolent demonstrations, and they have begun a process of reform and revolution that will alter the basic bargain between the ruler and ruled in the Middle East. Al Qaeda also insisted that people follow its path to create a perfect Islamic state, drawing from the 7th Century and reject democracy and freedom as Western imports. Well, so far the demonstrations have been strikingly secular, largely devoted to calls against corruption and dictatorship and affirmed the importance of democracy and freedom for Arabs... The basic point is that al Qaeda seems to have little appeal in the Muslim world and even in Arab countries, where it originated. Polls affirm this, reporting suggests this, and the revolution confirms it. There really is no hankering in the Middle East for a return to the 7th Century, only a desire for jobs, pluralism, freedom, good government. Now, al Qaeda has embraced violence precisely because it has no political strength or strategy. It cannot bring a million people into Tahrir Square in Cairo to demand the ouster of Mubarak."

Thomas Hedgehammer also explains how both views are correct: "Basically there are two schools of thought on the matter: the ‘fewer grievances' school and the ‘more opportunities' school ... The former argues that democratization will stem new recruitment to al-Qaida by removing a key grievance and undermining the message that only violence can bring change. The latter argues that the unrest provides jihadis with new operational opportunities and encourages spoiler activism. Personally I lean toward the ‘more opportunities' school. I agree that the recent events are bad for al-Qaida in the long run, but I see the short and medium term effects as much less predictable." And Paul Cruickshank of CNN similarly says, the movements "caught al Qaeda off guard and threatens to reduce the terrorist group to irrelevance." [Washington Post, 3/7/11. Les Gelb, 2/22/11. Thomas Hedgehammer, 2/22/11.  Paul Cruickshank, 2/21/11]

What We're Reading

Eleven people were killed in Christian-Muslim clashes in Cairo after a Muslim group attacked a Christian demonstration against the burning of a church last week.

Tunisia has dissolved the party of former president Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.

A suicide bomber killed 36 at a funeral in Northwest Pakistan.

China has imposed a ban on foreigners entering Tibet this month.

International mediators arrived in Ivory Coast to attempt to end the country's ongoing political crisis.

Six Kenyan political figures were summoned to The Hague to answer charges of crimes against humanity.

Ireland's new parliament is meeting to elect Enda Kenny as the country's new prime minister.

Italian police arrested 34 in a crackdown on the 'Ndrangheta crime syndicate.

The 20-year-old student who became Mexico's youngest police chief is now seeking asylum in the United States.

All but one of the 23 oil workers kidnapped in Colombia this week has been freed.

Commentary of the Day

Barbara Slavin says that by silencing so many of those who worked within Iran's complicated political system to institute reforms, Ayatollah Khamenei is narrowing his base of support and increasing the likelihood that Iranians will take to the streets.

The Miami Herald editorializes that Peter King's "Islamic radicalization" hearings are ill-advised and an abuse of power. 

Spencer Ackerman writes that counterinsurgency advocates used to argue that the real measure of progress in a war wasn't the number of enemies killed but have since reversed their position in light of the difficulties of the Afghanistan war.