2/1/11

As the situation on the ground remains dynamic, NSN offers a primer on the key players on the ground in Egypt:

The Military. Steven Cook, Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow and author of a book on the Egyptian military, offers the top five things that people should know about the armed forces, including:

"1. The senior officers are the direct descendants of Gamal Abdel Nasser and the Free Officers who built the Egyptian regime.  The military has been a primary beneficiary of this political order and have not had to intervene overtly in politics until now because the system worked relatively well under a brother officer.  The armed forces, especially the commanders, are deeply enmeshed in the Egyptian economy."

"2. It is a tremendous relief that the military has declared that it will not fire on protestors, but also not unexpected... Yet the declaration about restraint also has to do with internal military dynamics.  There is a split in the armed forces between the senior command on the one hand and junior officers and recruits on the other who would refuse to fire on protestors.  This has long been the Achilles heel of the Egyptian military.  The senior people never know whether those people below them will follow orders.  As a result, rather than risking breaking the army, the military will not use lethal force to put down the protests."

[Steven Cook, 1/31/11]

Mohamed ElBaradei. As Colum Lynch reported yesterday, "During his 12 years as the U.N.'s top nuclear watchdog, ElBaradei has tangled with some of the world's toughest rogue regimes, including Saddam Hussein's Iraq, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Iran and Kim Jong-il's North Korea -- and butted heads with the Bush administration over its approach to Iraq and Iran... But ElBaradei is a virtual political unknown inside Egypt. His foreign pedigree adds to suspicions that the U.S.-educated official is a tool of the United States and other Western powers. Since he departed his Vienna home and arrived in Egypt last week, ElBaradei has sought to burnish his national standing, joining the protesters in Tahrir Square and sharply criticizing the Obama administration's handling of the crisis in Egypt, striking a tone that is likely to garner support among the protesters... ElBaradei's lack of charisma notwithstanding, many of Egypt's pro-democracy activists resent that he has spent so much time outside the country, while they were doing the hard work of pressing for democracy at home. ‘It's a legitimate complaint,' Michael Hanna [of the Century Foundation] says. ‘But a constellation of opposition figures glommed onto him as a tactical way to influence the United States and to dampen down the concerns about all hell breaking loose after Mubarak.' Hanna and other observers say that ElBaradei will have limited scope to pursue his own personal vision, noting that other leaders of the protest movement hold the power to block any deal not to their liking. ‘A lot of people in the West are rushing to this story, but we run the risk of inflating him more than is warranted,' Hanna says. ‘He doesn't have any moral authority to dictate to the protesters what sort of deal may be acceptable.' Still, ElBaradei could play a vital role as a unifying figure for many of same reasons he never emerged as a credible national leader. ‘He's the perfect person,' says Marc Lynch. ‘He's not affiliated with any political trends, he's kind of old and he is well known in Western capitals -- he can reassure,' says Lynch." [Colum Lynch, 1/31/10]

The Muslim Brotherhood. While the Brotherhood, founded in the 1920s and once possessed of a feared military wing "say that they support democratic principles, one of their stated aims is to create a state ruled by Islamic law, or Sharia. Their most famous slogan, used worldwide, is: ‘Islam is the solution'." Despite Brotherhood claims to promote democracy and renounce violence, CNAS Senior Fellow Marc Lynch cautions that the group "remains deeply committed to spreading a conservative vision of Islamic society and its cadres are deeply hostile to Israel and to U.S. foreign policy." It is, however, Egypt's largest opposition force, and thus is likely to play some role in a post-Mubarak Egypt.  Given this, experts are writing that it's important to be able to engage the Brotherhood, and to recognize that its move to peaceful political participation has drawn the ire of al Qaeda. Lynch explains: "The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) represents the strongest challenger to al‐Qa'ida and like‐minded groups within Islamist politics -- far stronger than the more liberal and Westernized secular Muslims or pro‐American activists with which the United States generally prefers to work. Its leaders speak the language of democracy, reject extremism and takfir, and advocate peaceful political participation." [BBC, 1/28/11. Marc Lynch, 12/16/10]

Negotiation Steering Committee. The Project on Middle East Democracy explains the make-up of the hastily-formed steering committee for the negotiations, writing that, "The opposition groups formed a steering committee to strategize further movements and pressure on President Hosni Mubarak and his military leaders for more political concessions. Members of the group include ElBaradei (NAC), Ayman Nour (Ghad),Osama Ghazali-Harb (DFP); Abdel-Gelil Moustafa (NAC); George Ishak (Kefaya); Mohd El-Beltagui (MB), Magdy Ahmed Hussein (Hezb al-Amal al-Islami - Islamic Workers' Party & also Kefaya), Hamdil Sabahi (Karama), Abdel Halim Qandil (Nasserist Party). The tenth seat is reserved for the youth movement, and a representative has not yet been named."

The Wall Street Journal summarizes: "One of the hallmarks of the massive national protests against Mr. Mubarak has been its secular tone. Supporters of the Brotherhood have joined the street demonstrations, but their footprint has been intentionally light, according to opposition leaders. Brotherhood members agreed with the umbrella of opposition groups organizing the protests to keep religious slogans out of the demonstration to minimize the risk that Mr. Mubarak's security agencies could discredit the movement, organizers said. Egypt's opposition groups have had a checkered past, with ideological divides and personal animosities sapping their strength against the might of the Mubarak regime. For now, their solidarity appears to be sticking. The umbrella organization, called the National Association for Change, on Sunday formed a steering committee, with Mr. ElBaradei at the helm, to strategize further movements and pressure Mr. Mubarak and his military leaders for more political concessions, according to senior Brotherhood leaders. That reflects the organization's strategy that their religious goals need to be put on the back burner to achieve democracy, said Helmi Gazzar, the head of the Brotherhood's district party office in northern Cairo." [POMED, 1/31/11. Wall Street Journal, 1/31/11]

Omar Suleiman, newly appointed vice president. Mubarak's appointment of Suleiman as his vice president last Saturday represented the elevation of a face that is very familiar to Egyptians. As Reuters reports, Suleiman "has been the director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Services (EGIS) since 1993, a role in which he has played a prominent public role in diplomacy, including in Egypt's relations with Israel and with key aid donor the United States." During his career as Egypt's intelligence chief, Suleiman "was in charge of the country's most important political security files, and was the mastermind behind the fragmentation of Islamist groups who led the uprising against the state in the 1990s." CFR Egypt expert Steven Cook says Suleiman values order above all. "This is not a guy who is terribly interested in democratic change. He is a security man and he is interested in order." Suleiman will head negotiations with Egypt's opposition parties. As the Wall Street Journal reports today, "In Egypt, a committee from the coalition of opposition parties met Monday to discuss their strategy in anticipation of Mr. Mubarak's ouster. People briefed on the meeting said the focus was to hammer out a negotiating strategy with the army and newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman." [Reuters, 1/29/11. Steven Cook, via AP, 1/30/11. WSJ, 2/1/11]

What We're Reading

Jordan's King Abdullah II dismissed Prime Minister Samir Rifai and his cabinet after widespread protests by crowds of people inspired by demonstrations in Egypt, Tunisia and elsewhere.

Egypt's economy approached paralysis as foreign commerce, tourism and banking all but halted.

North and South Korea set a date for holding preliminary military talks.

Burma's long-standing leader Than Shwe is not on a list of presidential nominees, suggesting he will no longer be the country's official ruler.

Government, labor unions and business groups in Spain have struck a "grand social pact" to allow for an overhaul to boost the economy.

Unemployment in the Eurozone remained at 10% in December, unchanged from the month before.

At least 219 people died during the protests that toppled Tunisia's President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali last month, a UN team has said.

The United States is urging the Iranian government to halt executions after Tehran hanged a Dutch-Iranian woman, saying she was a drug smuggler.

A new report by the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee recommends rethinking the American civilian presence in Iraq.

A large area of northern Australia is preparing for what could be one the of the biggest cyclones ever to hit the country.

Commentary of the Day

David Newman, Amjad Atallah, David Makovsky, Marwan Muasher, Shibley Telhami, Michele Dunne and Menachim Klein weigh in on how the situation in Egypt could affect the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Richard Haass says Mubarak's days in office are numbered and that the United States should be very circumspect in its public statements but privately pushing very hard for a transfer of authority, perhaps in the form of a caretaker government or a constitutional reform process.

Genieve Abdo writes the voices making comparisons with 1979 have failed to understand the seeds of the Islamic revolution, nor do they seem to recognize that today's Egyptian uprising is a non-ideological movement.

Laurie A. Brand argues there are good reasons to be skeptical that Tunisia's revolution will spread to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.