11/29/10

Yesterday, WikiLeaks, an organization that says its goal is to "to bring important news and information to the public," released its third tranche of classified U.S. documents.  The content of the more than 250,000 diplomatic cables thus far released mostly confirms what many foreign policy observers have suspected, but also revealed some new specific information.  There are, however, serious concerns about what this means in the long term for secrecy and classification in the United States - an area where there has been some progress in recent years to reverse a dangerous trend.  Another danger is the impact the document dump may have on the content of future diplomatic cables - an important tool in developing foreign policy - out of fear of a future exposure.  While openness and transparency are important for a democracy, the ability for a government to communicate frankly in internal documents is vital for diplomacy.  As the WikiLeaks controversy dominates the public sphere and discussions on national security this week, there is plenty more to focus on.  We should not allow a series of unedited, context-free documents to disrupt our focus on the serious national security issues of the day.

Leaks confirm much that was known, add color, embarrassment.  As Robert Farley of the Patterson School of Public Policy at the University of Kentucky wrote, "there's not much to particularly shock about the latest set of revelations (while also acknowledging that I haven't gone through everything)." As Laura Rozen, foreign policy reporter for Politico writes, "while there are some surprises in the raw cables reviewed so far... one is struck overall that the classified diplomatic discussions on Iran revealed in the cables are not all that different from what one would expect from following the public comments senior U.S. officials have made on the Iran issue the last several months." [Robert Farley, 11/28/10. Laura Rozen, 11/28/10]

End result may be less transparency in foreign affairs, rather than more.  As Farley writes, "I'm also pretty skeptical that this release will incline the United States government to make more information publicly available in the future.  Bureaucracies don't seem to react to attacks in that manner; I suspect that the State Department will rather act to radically reduce access to such material in order to prevent future leaks."  Dan Drezner, of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy says that this, "means that the chances of an intelligence failure just shot up."  NSN Executive Director Heather Hurlburt similarly writes, "There had been a little progress in recent years toward classifying fewer documents and using the more rarefied classifications less frequently.  This will reverse that, since a top-secret classification would have kept any of these documents off the shared network from which they were allegedly downloaded by a very junior soldier." [Robert Farley, 11/28/10. Daniel Drezner, 11/29/10.  Heather Hurlburt, The New Republic, 11/29/10]

Openness and transparency are essential; so is the ability for governments to communicate frankly and analytically.  The White House explains the drawbacks of the leaked material: "By its very nature, field reporting to Washington is candid and often incomplete information... It is not an expression of policy, nor does it always shape final policy decisions."  As Alex Grossman, a former Foreign Service Officer, stated: "fear of publication will only prevent people from voicing frank and honest opinions, assessments and recommendations."  Similarly, James Collins, a former ambassador to Russia, said that, "Leaking information of this kind will be detrimental to building the trust among officials necessary to conduct effective and productive diplomacy. It will impede doing things in a normal, civilized way."  [Alex Grossman, via The New Republic, 11/29/10. James Collins, CNN, 11/27/10.]

Don't let the controversy knock America off-course on vital national security issues. With some international observers questioning the reliability of U.S. diplomacy, the WikiLeaks release makes success on key agenda items even more important.  Key opportunities to do so exist now: pushing forward with New START treaty ratification; a firm, coordinated response to North Korea; and a calm, effective approach to stamping out terrorism.

Heightened tension in Korean Peninsula demands tough, careful response: The NY Times reports this morning, "President Lee Myung-bak promised in a televised speech on Monday to make sure North Korea ‘pays a dear price' should it attack the South again. His toughly-worded address at the Blue House, the presidential palace in Seoul, made no mention of China's initiative over the weekend to defuse the latest crisis on the Korean Peninsula. Analysts said that omission signals South Korea's disappointment that China is not doing more to rein in North Korea, which relies heavily on China for economic aid... The Chinese effort came as the United States, South Korea's most powerful ally, conducted four-day naval war exercises with South Korean forces in the Yellow Sea in response to the shelling, a move that both China and North Korea have criticized as provocative." [NY Times, 11/29/10]

Quick, drama free disruption of terrorism plot:  Authorities arrested a 19-year-old for plotting to explode a bomb during Portland, Oregon's Christmas tree lighting ceremony next month.  The suspect was monitored by authorities throughout, and the case came to a drama-free end with the suspect in jail.  The LA Times reports: "Authorities said the bomb was a deliberate dud supplied by the FBI, and no one was injured. Federal agents arrested Mohamud on the spot. He is scheduled to be in federal court Monday on a charge of attempted use of a weapon of mass destruction." [LA Times, 11/29/10]

Politics vs national security on nuclear treaty with Russia:  As CNN reported yesterday, "The Republican senator who opposes ratification this year of a new nuclear arms treaty with Russia made clear Sunday that politics, not policy, is the main issue."  "Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) exhorted Republicans on Sunday to stop "playing politics and hiding behind the skirts of Jon Kyl" on the START treaty," Politico reported yesterday.  "There is some game playing going on with the START treaty, and it's all about politics and trying to damage the president of the United States," Sen. McCaskill noted.  Appearing with Sen. Kyl on Meet the Press, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) explained, "Come on, let's be reasonable, let's be constructive, let's be bipartisan.  We can get these things done... I agree with Senator Richard Lugar.  It is time for us to step up as a nation and face the reality that we will be safer with the START treaty.  And I might say to Senator Kyl, consider the situation in Iran. They just announced yesterday that they were going to fire up their nuclear reactor.  If it's for peaceful domestic purposes, all well and good.  But if it's part of an agenda to build a nuclear weapon, it's a danger to the world. Russia has helped us in dealing with this threat in Iran.  To ignore and push aside the START treaty at this moment does not help our relationship with Russia in this critical issue of an Iranian nuclear program."  [CNN, 11/28/10. Politico, 11/28/10. Meet the Press, 11/28/10]

What We're Reading

Russia's envoy to NATO is optimistic about the feasibility of a proposed joint missile defense system with NATO.

South Korean president took responsibility for failing to protect his country, signaling the South's hardened military stance toward North.

An Iranian nuclear scientist has been killed in one of two explosions rocking the capital of Tehran.

The latest round of United Nations climate change talks are set to begin in the coastal resort city of Cancun, Mexico. Representatives from 194 countries will try to close the gap between commitments to reduce carbon emissions made by developed and developing nations.

Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir will not attend a joint European Union-African summit in Tripoli, Libya.

Twelve of the eighteen candidates in Haiti's presidential election denounced the country's election as fraudulent and called for the results to be annulled.

Members of Egypt's largest political opposition party braced for a bruising defeat in parliamentary elections amid reports that proxies of the ruling party committed widespread fraud and prevented election monitors working for rival candidates from monitoring the polls.

Europe sealed a €67.5 billion bailout of Ireland and for the first time crafted a blueprint for rescues from 2013 on that could have private-sector creditors bearing some of the cost.

Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki sought to show he was in control of a tenuous new governing coalition, saying that he would have "the decisive word" in forming a new Iraqi government and would move forward with or without potential allies.

Commentary

Pat Buchanan argues that Republicans lack grounds for opposing the New START treaty.

Helene Cooper explores the updated U.S.-Chinese relationship, which must be carefully calibrated to balance American demands against what Beijing can be realistically persuaded to do.