ELECTION DAY SPECIAL REPORT

PART I: WHAT GOP GAINS WILL MEAN FOR DEFENSE

SPENDING WILL STAY FLAT or even continue to grow by dribs and drabs, observers agree, despite this year's small-government theme. Most potential Republican plans and statements exempt "national defense' from proposed cuts. Veteran analyst Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group told Morning Defense that history gives every reason to believe that a Republican House - or Congress - and a Democratic administration would be good or at least neutral for the defense industry. What's less certain is the behavior of Republican newcomers whose zeal for smaller budgets could extend to the Pentagon.

"Historically, mixed governments have been quite good for defense; the complication this time is the rise of the anti-defense right-wing crowd," Aboulafia said. "We don't really know how that plays out. That's a new feature in my job I haven't seen the past several decades."

VIRGINIA'S RANDY FORBES, a HASC Republican whose district is heavy in military jobs and industry, is typical of members who will likely continue to press for big Pentagon budgets. But he took a decidedly tea-partarian line when asked whether incumbents like him might lock horns with anti-spending newcomers.

"I don't think we should go into this with the mindset that we should make cuts, or that we're not going to make cuts; that'd be arbitrary and ignorant," Forbes said. "I really don't know whether the Constitution gives us the right to bail out Wall Street, bail out the banks, the auto industry, the airline industry, the health care industry - honestly I don't know - but one thing I do know [the Founding Fathers] all agreed on was that we need to keep strong armies and navies."

A KEY VOICE OF THE DEFENSE INDUSTRY, the Lexington Institute's Loren Thompson, sums it all up: "Things aren't likely to change much on the military front no matter who controls the House." http://bit.ly/9jyIve  

THEN AGAIN - "I see divisions within the Republican Party as being to the betterment of the U.S. in our prosecution of foreign policy," retired Army Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton told Morning Defense. Eaton, who advises the left-leaning National Security Network, said a heterogeneous House majority will need to allow for compromise between its tea party faction and what Eaton called the GOP's "war party," and as such might be more willing to put Pentagon spending in check and blunt the influence of hawks. Conservatives, Eaton wrote Monday, generally don't deserve their reputation for being good at defense. http://aol.it/9on3eW  

SUBPOENA POWER - Whether or not internecine strife breaks apart the different varieties of Republicans, it's a sure bet that the GOP-ruled House will have a much more contentious relationship with the Obama administration's Pentagon. Expect more hearings, more reports and even the potential for members to make good on their threat to subpoena Gates over his decision to close Joint Forces Command. Forbes, who is fighting alongside his Virginia colleagues to keep JFCOM open, told Morning Defense he still considers the subpoena a viable option if Gates fails to provide lawmakers with the "information" they want on his decision. With Republicans in charge - Buck McKeon of California is waiting in the wings as to become HASC chairman - a subpoena might not be so far-fetched.

PART II: FIVE DEFENSE RACES TO WATCH:
1. MO-4 - HASC institution Ike Skelton had a bit of a scare in mid-October when his Republican opponent, Vicky Hartzler, appeared to draw within striking distance, but the latest polls held Skelton ahead by a narrow margin. If he wins tonight's nail-biter and the Republicans make good on their anticipated tsunami, Skelton will almost certainly lose his chairmanship to McKeon, but as ranking member Skelton would continue to be a major force. http://bit.ly/cPsF5F  

2. MS-4 - Mississippi's Gene Taylor is one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, but this year's reelection bid has pulled him even further to the right, and despite the work he's brought home to Northrop Grumman's naval shipyard in Pascagoula, he's very vulnerable to Republican Steven Palazzo. Even if Taylor survives today, he'll likely lose his chairmanship of the HASC's sea power subcommittee to Missouri's Todd Akin. http://bit.ly/9p5d1O  

3. VA-2 - HASC newcomer Glenn Nye barely had time to break in his seat before he was challenged by Republican Scott Rigell, who has accused Nye of "failing" to "protect" Norfolk's Joint Forces Command, which was targeted for closure by Defense Secretary Robert Gates as part of his austerity plans. Nye and Rigell came into today in a dead heat. http://bit.ly/aIOOVt  

4. Pennsylvania Senate - Democrat Joe Sestak had hoped to move from his House seat into Arlen Specter's Senate seat, with a likely spot on the SASC, but he went into Tuesday trailing Republican Pat Toomey in both polls and cash. If Sestak, a former Navy vice admiral, does win, he'll be one of the highest ranking former service members in the Senate and likely a powerful new voice on sea power. http://bit.ly/bWYbQh  

5. Two key races for veterans: AZ-5, where Democrat Harry Mitchell looks like he's about to lose his seat - and important positions on the House Veterans Affairs Committee - to Republican David Schweikert; and SD-1, where another top VA committee member, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, is in a battle for her seat with Republican Kristi Noem. http://bit.ly/d0kMzy  (AZ-5) and http://bit.ly/9U1Uyp  (SD-1)

Bonus mega-race: The Senate: If Republicans take control of the Senate, it's a whole new ball game: Among many, many other factors, if Gates leaves next year as planned, a Republican-controlled Senate could make it more difficult for Obama to confirm his first choice as replacement.