10/26/10

Today's announcement that Iran has begun loading fuel into its nuclear power plant at Bushehr is a sideshow - designed by Iran's leaders to distract attention from how U.S.-led sanctions are starting to bite.  The move does not bring Iran closer to a nuclear weapon capability - the Bushehr plant is under IAEA safeguards and the Russians are providing and taking back the fuel, denying Iran the opportunity to divert the spent fuel for military purposes.  It does, however, allow war hawks to ignore the concerns of military and national security experts and ramp up their rhetoric in support of a military strike against Iran.  The administration's comprehensive Iran policy is aimed at the real threat-Iran's enrichment program-and it has been effective at sharpening Tehran's choices.  The White House has mobilized key states, including Russia and China, and has won strong support for international sanctions, which experts agree, are starting to bite. 

Iran's nuclear ambitions-not the Bushehr reactor-remain the source of concern.  Concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions are well-founded, given its refusal to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency and failure to declare sensitive enrichment facilities.  The Russian-built nuclear power plant at Bushehr, however, does not bring Iran closer to a nuclear weapon capability.  As the BBC reported today, "Iran has begun loading fuel into the core of its first nuclear power plant, state television has reported.  It marks a key stage in the firing-up of the Bushehr plant, which is set to produce electricity from 2011... Iranian and Russian engineers initially began to move nuclear fuel into the reactor in August, amid great media fanfare, but the work was again delayed... Russia will operate the facility in southern Iran, supplying its nuclear fuel and taking away the nuclear waste.  Iran's separate uranium enrichment programme has alarmed Western nations, who distrust Iran's claims it is solely for peaceful purposes.  Experts say that as long as the Bushehr plant is Russian-operated and supervised by the UN nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), there is little chance of proliferation." 

State Department spokesman Darby Holladay similarly told the AFP in August that the reactor is "‘under IAEA safeguards and Russia is providing the needed fuel and taking back the spent nuclear fuel, which would be the principal source of proliferation concerns.'  A White House official stressed, however, that U.S. views on the Bushehr reactor ‘should not be confused with the world's fundamental concerns with Iran's overall nuclear intentions, particularly its pursuit of uranium enrichment.'  Russia's supply of fuel to Iran is the ‘model' that Washington and its P5-plus-one partners - permanent UN Security Council members Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, plus Germany - have endorsed, Holladay said.  But he added: ‘It is important to remember that the IAEA's access to Bushehr is separate from and should not be confused with Iran's broader obligations to the IAEA on this score, as the IAEA has consistently reported Iran remains in serious violation of its obligations.'"  [BBC, 10/26/10. AFP, 8/21/10]

Against the advice of senior national security leaders, conservatives call for a military strike on Iran. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) is in Bahrain today where he will likely repeat his past calls for a military strike on Iran as "a real and credible alternative policy that we and our allies are ready to exercise."   Sen. Lieberman joins a chorus of conservatives who have called for a military strike on Iran - calls which go against the recommendations of senior national security leaders, who emphasize that a military strike would have disastrous and unpredictable consequences and produce negligible benefits.

John Bolton, in August: "So if [bombing is] going to happen in Bushehr it has to happen before the fuel rods go in... So most people think that neither Israel nor the United States, come to that, would attack the reactor after it's been fueled." [John Bolton, via Newsmax, 8/13/10]

Bill Kristol: "The more you put force on the table, the more you might encourage those within Iran to say ‘wait a second we're heading towards the precipice.'" [Bill Kristol, via ThinkProgress, 9/26/10]

Sarah Palin: Endorsing an attack on Iran to gain domestic political support, Palin said: "Say [President Obama] played... the war card. Say he decided to declare war on Iran... that changes the dynamics in what we can assume is going to happen between now and three years." [Sarah Palin, via the National Review, 2/8/10]

Those calls go against the advice of senior national security leaders.

Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff: "I worry, on the other hand, about striking Iran. I've been very public about that because of the unintended consequences of that..." [Michael Mullen, 4/18/10]

General David Petraeus, former CENTCOM commander:  Warning that the military option risks unleashing a popular backlash that would play into the hands of the regime.  "There is certainly a history, in other countries, of fairly autocratic regimes almost creating incidents that inflame nationalist sentiment," said Petraeus. "So that could be among the many different, second, third, or even fourth order effects (of a strike)."  [David Petraeus, 2/3/10]

General Anthony Zinni, former CENTCOM commander: "The problem with the strike is thinking through the consequences of Iranian reaction...You can see all these reactions that are problematic in so many ways. Economic impact, national security impact - it will drag us into a conflict.  I think anybody that believes that it would be a clean strike and it would be over and there would be no reaction is foolish." [Anthony Zinni, 8/04/09]

Ambassador Nicholas Burns, former Bush administration undersecretary of state for political affairs: "Air strikes would undoubtedly lead Iran to hit back asymmetrically against us in Iraq, Afghanistan and the wider region, especially through its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas. This reminds us of Churchill's maxim that, once a war starts, it is impossible to know how it will end." [Nicholas Burns, 5/06/09]

Colin Kahl, deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East: In an interview with Think Progress, Kahl warned that even though any military strike could delay Iran's nuclear program, it could also "incentivize the Iranians to go all the way to weaponize." [Colin Kahl, via Think Progress, 10/1/09]

[Joe Lieberman, 9/29/10]

The comprehensive approach - a partnership among the Administration, Congress, international community - is working and sharpening Iran's choices.   As Brookings Senior Fellow Kenneth Pollack recently outlined, "The United States has achieved some truly remarkable feats in pursuit of the White House's Iran policy over the course of the past twelve months, achievements many critics from left, right and center all thought impossible... Of greatest importance, in June 2010 the administration secured the passage of a new UN Security Council resolution (number 1929) that imposed a fourth round of sanctions on Tehran for its failure to comply with its obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and its failure to cease its nuclear-enrichment activities. In concert with France, Britain and Germany (and some quiet help from Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE), the United States convinced both Russia and China to agree to the new resolution as well. Resolution 1929 bans arms sales to Tehran, something most thought unthinkable given the Russian and Chinese ardor to continue profiting from that market. It also included language that enabled member states to impose harsh new financial controls and limits on investment in the Iranian energy sector."

Iran is also feeling the pinch internally.  "Iran's security forces are now on the alert for a new kind of domestic threat - strikes and civil unrest provoked by planned cuts in fuel subsidies... The move was seen as part of a tightening of money flowing to and from Iran in line with international sanctions against the country's nuclear program, which Western nations fear could be a front for the pursuit of nuclear weapons," reports the New York Times.  [Kenneth Pollack, National Interest, 11/10. NY Times, 10/10/10]

What We're Reading

The Chinese government has launched a high-octane diplomatic campaign during the past two months aimed at thwarting the Obama administration's plan to back an international probe into possible war crimes by Burma's military rulers.

Tariq Aziz, a former top aide to Saddam Hussein, was sentenced to death by an Iraqi court for crimes against members of rival Shiite political parties.

Corruption in Russia has grown even more blatant over the past year.

Iran has begun loading the first of 163 fuel rods into the core of its first nuclear reactor, set to go into operation early next year, and vowed to pursue nuclear activities "in other areas."

A pre-trial chamber of the International Criminal Court has called on Kenya to arrest Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir on genocide charges when he visits the country later this week.

When U.S. President Barack Obama arrives in India next month, he will face a key challenge of boosting defense ties that are on the upswing but mired by political charges of pandering to Washington's interests.

Anti-Muslim feelings propel the right wing in Europe.

A cholera outbreak showed signs of easing after killing more than 250 people in a sweep through rural Haiti, but the earthquake-devastated country's first bout with the disease in decades is far from over.

The Palestinian president said that Israel has been taking unilateral steps for decades by building settlements, so the Palestinians might take one of their own - asking the United Nations to recognize their independent state.

The EU will deploy border patrols in Greece in a bid to stop the rising numbers of irregular migrants crossing over from Turkey, days after Athens was criticized by the United Nations over its "appalling" conditions for detainees.

Commentary of the Day

Jared Genser wants the U.S. to denounce the impending Burmese election.

Ellen Knickmeyer says the recent Wikileaks release on Iraq shows just how much former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld lied to the American public.

Richard Weitz argues NATO should provide Russia a strong security package next month at the Lisbon Summit now that Dimitry Medvedev has confirmed his attendance.