7/13/10 

The redeployment from Iraq of all U.S. combat forces by August 31 remains on schedule, according to American commanding General Ray Odierno.  This is a victory for the policy vision that has been advocated by progressives since 2005, a vision that winds down our involvement there while simultaneously re-focusing on core security interests.  While the redeployment signals a new phase in American-Iraqi affairs, there are still multiple challenges to be addressed in Iraq, particularly the spate of violence that has occurred since last March's elections and the continued negotiations over government formation.  Nonetheless, as Odierno said, these difficulties will not be solved by more troops. Rather, they must be addressed through political and economic solutions, most immediately including, as Vice President Biden recently stated during his visit to Iraq over the 4^th of July holiday, through the formation of a new Iraqi government that is inclusive and responsive to the needs of all Iraqis.  Yet, as the Vice President recognized, this imperative does not mean that the U.S. should seek to impose a solution, thereby undercutting democratic developments in Iraq.  Instead, the best course for the U.S. is to continue to make good on its commitment to the policy of strategic redeployment, which assists Iraqi governance by modestly influencing the political situation, facilitates the transition to a civilian-led mission, focuses on assisting Iraqis as they confront persistent challenges, and builds an enduring strategic relationship between our two countries.

Formation of government in Iraq delayed due to political jockeying, against backdrop of continued violence.  The Iraqi government has yet to form a government following the March 7 elections.  The New York Times reports today that, "Iraq's Parliament has met once, for 18 minutes on June 14, since the close outcome of national elections more than four months ago created a political stalemate... parliamentary leaders delayed a session scheduled for this week, raising questions about whether their inaction is now breaking the law. Under the Constitution, a new president should be chosen within 30 days of the first session...The two leading politicians who emerged from the March 7 parliamentary elections are Ayad Allawi, a former interim prime minister who heads the Iraqiya list, and Mr. Maliki. Mr. Allawi's coalition won two more seats than Mr. Maliki's, but neither came away with a mandate to form a new government. Candidates loyal to the radical Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, whose militia fought the Americans early on in the Iraq war, also won an influential bloc of seats."

According to the Times, "[t]he political stalemate is playing out against a delicate backdrop: the country is still plagued by persistent violence that claims the lives of hundreds of Iraqis a month, and the United States military is in the process of sharply reducing the number of forces in the country." The situation has lead "Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who publicly steers clear of politics," to say that he "may step in with "help and advice" if politicians fail to form a government quickly," according to Reuters.  Against this backdrop, violence in Iraq remains a serious issue. The New York Times reporting last week that, "Five people were killed and 18 others were wounded Friday when a suicide car bomber detonated his vehicle at an Iraqi Army checkpoint in western Baghdad, the authorities said. Three soldiers were among the dead. Iraqi authorities also said 75 people were killed and more than 400 others wounded during attacks on Shiite pilgrims in Baghdad during the annual procession to the shrine of the eighth-century Imam Musa al-Kadhim, which ended Thursday." [NY Times, 7/9/10. Reuters, 7/9/10.  NY Times, 7/13/10]

The U.S. should continue to press for political solutions, but must recognize that its influence is limited. The U.S. can and should encourage Iraqis to come to a durable agreement regarding the future of their political system. Recognition of this fact was on display during Vice President Joe Biden's recent visit to Iraq. Biden "urged rival Iraqi politicians Sunday to end months of delays and select new leaders for their wobbly democracy," reported the Associated Press. "Mr. Biden has visited Iraq 17 times since 2003, when he was still a senator, and has seen the country evolve from an occupied war zone to a bloody sectarian battlefield to a fragile democracy. His latest visit has required a delicate diplomatic dance of trying to subtly influence Iraq's internal politics while not appearing to impugn the nation's sovereignty," wrote Time\ Arango for the New York Times. According to the Times, "[i]n brief remarks before a meeting at the residence of Gen. Ray Odierno, the top United States military commander in Iraq, Mr. Biden said: ‘The country is in a position where it looks like the most difficult thing is putting the government together. But in another sense this is local politics.'"  Biden also cautioned Iraqis: "You should not, and I'm sure you will not, let any state, from the United States to any state in the region, dictate what will become of you all." While the Times reported that the Vice President's warning was "clearly a reference to Iran," it also reflected the limited appetite in Iraq for American intrusion on its politics. A separate Associated Press piece indicated that "Iraqi officials appeared cool to the prospect of Biden muscling in on their political scene." Writing at the time of Iraq's elections, Middle East expert Marc Lynch cautioned, "[d]oing the sorts of assertive things which may please Obama's critics are highly likely to spark a negative reaction among Iraqis, generating more hostility to the U.S. role without actually accomplishing anything. The U.S. is wise to avoid them." [AP, via MSNBC, 7/4/10. NY Times, 7/3/10. AP, via ABC News, 7/3/10. Marc Lynch, 2/23/10]

U.S. military drawdown in Iraq on target, but drawdown doesn't mean abandoning Iraq.  In today's Washington Post, General Odierno again confirmed that "the U.S. troop withdrawal remains on track even though Iraq has yet to form a new government, more than four months after the national election. "Iraq doesn't need more troops now, Odierno said; it needs political and economic support," reported the Post. The Post continued with more of Odierno's remarks: "For us it's about eliminating the environment that allows extremism to exist. We haven't eliminated that environment. That environment will get eliminated through economic and political progress,' Odierno said. ‘We're not leaving tomorrow. We're going to have 50,000 American soldiers on the ground here . . . We're not abandoning Iraq. We're changing our commitment from military-dominated to one that is civilian led.'"

Marc Lynch has reiterated this point, explaining that withdrawal "doesn't mean ignoring Iraq."  What it does mean, according to Lynch, is "moving to develop a normal, constructive strategic relationship with the new Iraqi government, with the main point of contact the Embassy and the private sector rather than the military, and adhering in every way possible to the SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement) and to the drawdown timeline." [General Odierno via Washington Post, 7/13/10. Marc Lynch, 3/8/10]

What We're Reading

An Iranian nuclear scientist who Iran says was kidnapped by the Central Intelligence Agency has taken refuge in the Iranian interests section of the Pakistani Embassy in Washington.

Ugandan police announced that they had found an explosives-laden vest at a popular nightclub in the capital, Kampala.

An Israeli military report blames faulty intelligence and poor planning for the botched raid of a Gaza-bound aid ship, but praises the "heroic" commandos who carried out the raid and concludes that the ship's passengers likely fired first.

The deadly bombings in Uganda during the World Cup final have deepened worries among American authorities about another once localized Islamic group, al Shabab, which is spreading its terrorism across borders.

Italian police carried out one of the biggest operations ever against the powerful 'ndrangheta crime organization, arresting 300 people including top bosses, and seizing million of dollars in property.

The International Criminal Court's judges charged Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir with orchestrating a bloody campaign of genocide against Darfur's three main ethnic groups, the first time the court has accused a sitting head of state of that crime.

Cuban President Fidel Castro made his first major appearance in years, holding forth on the dangers of possible nuclear confrontations in Iran and the Korean Peninsula.

Japan's government said it had to press on with tax reforms to cut a huge public debt despite a stunning election setback, and was looking to two opposition parties to help drive policy change.

The number of young people infected with HIV in Africa is falling in 16 of the 25 countries hardest hit by the virus, according to a new U.N. report.

A rogue Afghan soldier shot and killed three British troops and wounded several others in southern Afghanistan.

Commentary of the Day

Dave Eggers and John Prendergast argue that war is around the corner in Sudan and call for a strong diplomatic campaign by the U.S. to help prevent it.

David Schenker says the death of Grand Ayatollah Seyyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah paves the way for a more militant, Iranian-influenced strain of Islamic ideology to gain ground in Lebanon.

Steve Walt lays out five questions about American grand strategy that Americans should be asking but aren't.