6/14/10

Today marked the first convening of the Iraqi parliament since the national elections took place in March. Parliament's meeting, which occurred following a large-scale attack on the Iraqi Central Bank in Baghdad, is an important milestone in the process of establishing a government.  However, the ongoing political maneuvering involving Iraq's major political parties, each of which are attempting to increase its odds of leading a ruling coalition, overshadowed Parliament's meeting. Wrangling among these groups will likely spell further delays for the Iraqi political calendar, raising the possibility of political paralysis, as well as instability.

Iraq will continue to face challenges. But Iraqis continue to give every indication that they want to resolve these challenges themselves.  The fact is that the U.S. has little ability to determine how Iraqis overcome those challenges. The U.S. can and should encourage Iraqis to come to sustainable agreement over the future composition of their government. But it cannot dictate its preferences to Iraqis.   In President Obama's words, "The future of Iraq belongs to the people of Iraq."

Senior military officials confirm that the American withdrawal remains on schedule, thanks in large part to the increasingly capable Iraqi Security Forces that are now taking the lead.  With the American drawdown on track, the U.S. should focus on defining the new phase - primarily political and economic - of America's long-term relationship with Iraq and the Iraqi people.

Following attack on Iraqi Central Bank, and against backdrop of continued political instability, Iraqi parliament meets for the first time in months.  One day after an attack on the Iraqi Central Bank by gunmen wearing security uniforms, the Iraqi parliament convened for the first time since the March elections. According to Reuters, the "new 325-member parliament will be tasked with drafting legislation on a slew of economic issues as the country tries to move beyond the sectarian violence unleashed after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion and set off on a path of economic development."  Reuters called the meeting a "major step toward the establishment of a government", but cautioned that it "appeared likely it would still take weeks for political factions to agree on a choice of prime minister."  Parliament's meeting followed what was believed to be a raid on the Iraqi Central Bank, which spiraled into a protracted firefight, and according to the New York Times, underscored the "deep sense of uncertainty here over when a new government will be formed after months of deadlock."

Parliament's meeting came amidst ongoing political wrangling to determine the distribution of power within the Iraqi political system after a contentious March election. Two different Shia parties, including current prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki's State of Law coalition, have joined forces to challenge the largely Sunni party that was the single largest vote-getter, Ayyad Allawi's Iraqiya. "Iraqiya leaders have claimed they should have the first crack at forming the government because they won the most seats on election day," reported ABC.  But strong anti-Maliki sentiment within the Shia bloc created an internal political impasse. Iraq analyst Reidar Visser concluded that the debate over the next government "hasn't even begun touching real issues such as ministerial appointments and a political programme." Visser added that "[u]nless Allawi and Maliki should suddenly discover the advantages of a bilateral pact, it is likely to remain like that for some time, with a protracted debate about a premier candidate destined to run its course inside the new Shiite alliance for some time." According to Visser, [t]he longer this process takes, the more fictitious will the claim to status as the "biggest bloc" become."  [Reuters, 6/14/10. NY Times, 6/14/10. ABC News, 6/14/10. Reidar Visser, 6/14/10]

As Iraqis take the lead, the United States should continue to encourage Iraqis to come to political agreement. While the U.S. can and should encourage Iraqis to come to a durable agreement regarding the future of their political system, the days of heavy-handed American intrusion are over.  Indeed, a decreasing U.S. military presence will make it more likely that the US and Iraq can successfully define a long-term strategic relationship.  Middle East expert Marc Lynch wrote at the time of the elections, "We should in no way look at these elections as the conclusion of a process-it is the beginning of the new realignment of political forces in Iraq without the interference of the United States."  Lynch advises  policy makers: "Doing the sorts of assertive things which may please Obama's critics are highly likely to spark a negative reaction among Iraqis, generating more hostility to the U.S. role without actually accomplishing anything. The U.S. is wise to avoid them." As Lynch explained in a later piece: "The American military presence provided Washington little influence over Iraq's turbulent politics...American analysts, who have a difficult time imagining an Iraq without a large-scale US military presence, are anxiously scanning the political landscape in search of a reason why the United States cannot possibly withdraw its troops. But they miss the wider picture of an Iraqi public which no longer wants or needs their supposedly stabilising role."

In Lynch's view, the U.S. should continue to stay "actively involved diplomatically, with the Embassy doing all it can to push for compromises and for political accommodation on crucial issues." [Marc Lynch, 2/23/10. Mark Lynch, 3/25/10]

Pentagon affirms U.S. drawdown will take place on schedule, but military withdrawal "doesn't mean ignoring Iraq."  In a June 1 letter to "the Soldiers, Airmen, Marines, Coast Guardsmen and Civilians of United States Forces-Iraq," U.S. Commander in Iraq General Ray Odierno wrote that "we will end combat operations and establish a transition force of Advisory and Assistance Brigades by September 1, 2010."   Odierno continued, saying, "Because of our success, Iraq is able to take the next steps of forming the next national government.   We expect security challenges as extremist organizations attempt to thwart Iraq's progress.  With our Iraqi partners in the lead, we will remain vigilant and prevail.  Throughout the remainder of 2010, we will support the national transition, engaging with new national leaders while simultaneously supporting ongoing provincial and local good-governance efforts aimed at improving the lives of all Iraqis...The time is right; the Iraqi Security Forces are ready to assume full responsibility for their internal defense.  This by no means suggests we are finished.  After September 1, 2010, we will continue to conduct partnered counter-terrorism operations and provide combat enablers to help the Iraqi Security Forces maintain pressure on the extremists networks."

The same day Odierno penned his letter, two significant objectives were met, further signaling that the drawdown will take place on schedule.  According to DoD news, "First, the United States formally transitioned the last nine checkpoints it jointly staffed in the International Zone, or Green Zone, to Iraqi forces. Second, the Iraqi Supreme Court announced the certification of the March 7 election results, a critical step in the process of peacefully forming the new government. [Army Major General Stephen] General Lanza also noted that "the U.S. military has closed or transferred 370 bases in the country so far, and moved some 700,000 pieces of equipment back to the United States, Army Central Command in Kuwait, or to support Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan."

But, as Marc Lynch wrote recently, withdrawal "doesn't mean ignoring Iraq."  What it does mean, according to Lynch, is "moving to develop a normal, constructive strategic relationship with the new Iraqi government, with the main point of contact the Embassy and the private sector rather than the military, and adhering in every way possible to the SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement) and to the drawdown timeline." [General Odierno via ABC News, 6/1/10. General Lanza via DoD, 6/11/10. Marc Lynch, 3/8/10]

What We're Reading

Deadly riots spread across southern Kyrgyzstan as police with shoot-to-kill orders failed to stop the nation's worst ethnic violence in two decades. Aid agencies reported that as many as 80,000 people had fled across the border to Uzbekistan.

Clashes erupted in downtown Tehran late Saturday afternoon between demonstrators marking the one-year anniversary of Iran's disputed presidential elections and baton-wielding security forces, despite opposition leaders having called off the demonstrations in fear of a harsh crackdown.

A string of suicides at the Foxconn plant in southern China that makes iPads and iPhones for Apple has focused attention on wages and conditions there. The company has said it will more than double the wages of staff by October.

Retired Israeli judge Jacob Turkel will lead an inquiry into the Israeli raid on the Turkish ship Mavi Marmara.

The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan.

Egypt's opposition political parties, facing national elections in coming months, appear to be at their weakest point in decades amid heightened speculation that President Hosni Mubarak may not seek to extend his 29-year reign.

While the wealthier countries stumble out of recession, Asian, African and Latin American economies are accelerating and contributing more than ever to world output.

According to Somali human rights groups and United Nations officials, the Somali government, which relies on assistance from the West to survive, is fielding hundreds of children or more on the front lines, some as young as 9.

The move to break up Belgium gathered pace as a separatist won an emphatic election victory in Flanders, the more prosperous Dutch-speaking region of the divided nation.

A former homicide detective accused of becoming a top enforcer for the Beltran Leyva drug? cartel, Edgar Valdez Villareal, has been arrested in central Mexico.

Commentary of the Day

James Rubin catalogues the Obama Administration's foreign policy successes.

Uttam Kumar Sinha says China's control over the Tibetan plateau and the waters that flow from it gives Beijing enormous strategic latitude with its neighbors.

Fred Kaplan calls Brazil and Turkey's nuclear deal "worse than useless."