5/13/10

Five weeks after President Obama and Russian President Medvedev signed the New START treaty, the most significant arms control agreement between our two countries in nearly two decades, the treaty and its supporting documents are now in the hands of the United States Senate.  The historic bipartisan support for arms control agreements will be put to the test over the next several months in the Senate, yet there should be no doubt that this agreement strengthens American national security.  With the full support of the military leadership of the United States behind it, it is, in the words of former Republican Secretary of Defense and longtime nuclear expert James Schlesinger, "obligatory" for the U.S. Senate to ratify the treaty. 

In particular, the New START accord makes America more secure through its extensive, streamlined verification regime and the strategic stability that the agreement ensures.  The treaty is also accompanied by a groundbreaking commitment to a long-term modernization program that will keep our nuclear arsenal safe, secure, and effective.  As Secretary of Defense Robert Gates wrote in the Wall Street Journal this morning, "The New START Treaty has the unanimous support of America's military leadership-to include the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, all of the service chiefs, and the commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, the organization responsible for our strategic nuclear deterrent.  For nearly 40 years, treaties to limit or reduce nuclear weapons have been approved by the U.S. Senate by strong bipartisan majorities. This treaty deserves a similar reception and result-on account of the dangerous weapons it reduces, the critical defense capabilities it preserves, the strategic stability it maintains, and, above all, the security it provides to the American people."

Senate ratification of New START is essential for formalizing nuclear safeguards that are vital for U.S. security.  The verification and transparency measures dictated by the New START treaty will provide for a more stable and transparent nuclear relationship with Russia.  The U.S. military has deemed New START critical to America's security, in part because of its updated verification measures. As Secretary Gates explained in his Wall Street Journal op-ed, the treaty's "extensive verification regime" gives the U.S. important assurances that Russia is respecting the terms of its agreement.  Gates writes: "First, it limits significantly U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals and establishes an extensive verification regime to ensure that Russia is complying with its treaty obligations. These include short-notice inspections of both deployed and nondeployed systems, verification of the numbers of warheads actually carried on Russian strategic missiles, and unique identifiers that will help us track-for the very first time-all accountable strategic nuclear delivery systems.  Since the expiration of the old START Treaty in December 2009, the U.S. has had none of these safeguards. The new treaty will put them back in place, strengthen many of them, and create a verification regime that will provide for greater transparency and predictability between our two countries, to include substantial visibility into the development of Russian nuclear forces." 

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen has endorsed the treaty's verification elements, saying "It features a much more effective, transparent verification method that demands quicker data exchanges and notifications... In other words, through the trust it engenders, the cuts it requires, and the flexibility it preserves, this treaty enhances our ability to do that which we have been charged to do: protect and defend the citizens of the United States."  [Admiral Michael Mullen, 3/27/10]

Former Ambassador and Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Steve Pifer further explained the wisdom of the treaty's verification measures in a piece for Arms Control Today: "The purpose of verification measures is to give each side high confidence that it can detect a militarily significant violation of the agreement in a timely manner, that is, rapidly enough to respond before the violation jeopardizes its security interests. The new treaty has a full set of verification measures, but as the presidents agreed last July, the negotiators have streamlined the monitoring provisions where possible. The negotiators took the START I verification measures as a starting point and did away with monitoring provisions that were not required to verify the new treaty. This will be welcomed by the U.S. and Russian militaries, which have to adjust operational practices to accommodate inspections and other verification measures." [Steven Pifer, Arms Control Today, May 2010]

[Secretary Gates, 5/13/10]

New START assures strategic stability between the world's two largest nuclear powers.  As Secretary Gates stated in his op-ed today, "The U.S. is far better off with this treaty than without it. It strengthens the security of the U.S. and our allies and promotes strategic stability between the world's two major nuclear powers."  Former Secretary of Defense William Perry supported the treaty during testimony given before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on April 29, affirming that the treaty "builds confidence between the United States and Russia by providing vitally important continuing dialogue on strategic nuclear issues. My hope is that this greater confidence will lead to constructive approaches to dealing with other problems between the United States and Russia."   

Former Ambassador to Ukraine and Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Steven Pifer similarly states that the treaty "will cut U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces to their lowest level in four decades in a stabilizing and verifiable manner."  In addition, Pifer points out the benefits that the relationship will have on the overall U.S.-Russian relationship: "New START should contribute to the administration's effort to "reset" relations with Russia. Over the past 40 years, when Washington and Moscow have made progress on strategic arms control issues, it has had a positive effect on the broader bilateral relationship. Indeed, one reason that the Obama administration sought at the beginning of 2009 to address certain Russian concerns regarding strategic arms control, such as the Bush administration's refusal to limit launchers, was to shape a more positive relationship. The administration hopes that this will help secure Moscow's cooperation on issues such as Afghanistan and blocking Iran's nuclear weapons program. The jury is still out, but the Russians have been more helpful on these questions over the past nine months than they were previously; they are allowing U.S. overflights to Afghanistan carrying lethal military equipment and have adopted a tougher stance with regard to Tehran's nuclear ambitions."

There are also important strategic benefits for the broader nonproliferation regime.   Nonproliferation expert and Executive Director of the Arms Control Association Daryl Kimball explains the broader context, saying that "New START will restore strategic stability and predictability. It is a concrete example of U.S. and Russian action on disarmament that will bolster support for measures designed to strengthen the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) at the May review conference." In addition, according to Max Bergmann and Samuel Charap of the Center for American Progress, New START "...restores U.S.-Russia nuclear relations and lays the groundwork for more far-reaching agreements."   [Secretary Gates, 5/13/10. William Perry and James Schlesinger at the SFRC Hearing, 4/29/10. Steve Pifer, Arms Control Today, 5/10. Steve Pifer and Strobe Talbott, 5/13/10. Max Bergmann and Samuel Charap, 4/6/10]

The Obama administration is making smart, long-term investments in America's nuclear infrastructure to ensure a safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrent.  Secretary of Defense Robert Gates wrote today that "the treaty is buttressed by credible modernization plans and long-term funding for the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile and the infrastructure that supports it. This administration is proposing to spend $80 billion over the next decade to rebuild and sustain America's aging nuclear infrastructure-especially our national weapons labs, and our science, technology and engineering base. This week the president is providing a report to the Congress on investments planned over the next 10 years to sustain and modernize our nuclear weapons, their delivery systems, and supporting infrastructure."

Commander of U.S. Strategic Command General Kevin Chilton testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee on April 22, saying "Investments that revitalize [the National Nuclear Security Administration's] aging infrastructure and intellectual capital strengthen our security with the facilities and the people needed to address technological surprises, geopolitical changes, and a range of cutting-edge national security challenges."  The Administration has already requested a 13 percent increase in the coming fiscal year for the people, labs, and facilities that maintain our safe, secure, and effective nuclear arsenal.  Independent technical assessments have already confirmed the reliability of the U.S. nuclear arsenal.  Coupled with the increase in funding, this reinforces our ability to maintain a reliable arsenal for years to come -- without resuming nuclear testing or building newly designed nuclear warheads.  When asked whether he feels that the current U.S. life extension programs constrain U.S. action, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Cartwright resolutely answered "No, I don't feel constrained in the least, really. I think we have more than enough capacity and capability for any threat that we see today or might emerge in the foreseeable future."  [Secretary Gates, 5/13/10. General Chilton, 4/22/10. General Cartwright, 4/6/10]

What We're Reading

A renegade army officer accused of marshaling a paramilitary force among Thailand's Red Shirt protesters, Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdiphol, was shot in the head, apparently by a sniper.

The success of the coming offensive in the Afghan city of Kandahar, the Taliban heartland, may well depend on whether Afghans can overcome their corrosive distrust of President Hamid Karzai's government.

The Obama Administration has warned against an Israeli government announcement that it could continue to demolish buildings in East Jerusalem.

A car bomb exploded in Sadr City, a Shiite area of Baghdad, killing nine people just two days after insurgents suspected to be with Al Qaeda launched assaults across the country.

U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan Maj. Gen. J. Scott Gration testified that preparations for a critical element of the peace accord -- a referendum on independence for southern Sudan -- are behind schedule.

The bump the euro received after the announcement of a $1 trillion bailout package has largely evaporated.

Nearly a decade after the United States began to focus its military training and equipment purchases almost exclusively on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan , U.S. military strategists are quietly shifting gears, saying that large-scale counterinsurgency efforts cost too much and last too long.

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan has nominated Kaduna state governor Namadi Sambo to be vice president of Africa's most populous nation.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced via Twitter that an offshore natural gas platform sank off the country's coast; 95 workers were rescued safely.

Turkey agreed to let Russia build and own a $20 billion nuclear power plant in Turkey in a deal that opens a new page in Russia's global expansion in the industry.

Commentary of the Day

Nicholas Kristof describes how funding schools and opening U.S markets to Pakistani exports would be "just about the best long-term counterterrorism investment available."

Sophie Richardson asks if talking to Beijing about human rights is a waste of time.

Michael Richardson says China's naval developments are changing the game and threatening U.S. sea dominance in East Asia.

Follow NSN on Twitter @natsecnet. Follow Democracy Arsenal on Twitter @demarsenal.