12/17/09

Tomorrow, President Obama arrives in Copenhagen for the final day of the U.N. conference on climate change.  This is the decisive moment of the conference, one which will determine whether a global agreement to address this issue will or will not be achieved.  The President’s arrival has been highly anticipated throughout the conference, and he is arriving after two weeks of intense negotiations over some of the most complex issues facing the world.  Prominent American governmental leaders, such as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Senator John Kerry (D-MA), and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), have been working hard both in Copenhagen and the halls of Congress to find a political agreement that will address the threat from climate change.  

National security leaders and experts support these efforts, as they too agree that climate change poses a clear danger to security at home and stability abroad – particularly in the developing countries that will be hit hardest by new global weather patterns, as explained in a 2008 National Intelligence Council (NIC) study on the topic.  Despite these realities, extreme conservatives are stridently opposing efforts to address climate change, some having even flown to Copenhagen to attempt to sabotage agreement there.  President Obama’s arrival at this moment and the actions he takes there will forcefully demonstrate the American commitment to taking meaningful action to address the serious threat that climate change poses to our nation’s security.  

While intense negotiations in Copenhagen continue, extreme conservatives work to undermine diplomacy.  A cloud of uncertainty hangs over climate change negotiations at Copenhagen.  Finnish President Tarja Halonen is “taking a glass half-empty approach” according to the Wall Street Journal, saying that “There are many details that aren’t getting resolved and I’m not sure two days is enough time.”  The Obama administration and progressive allies have acted to combat this skepticism.  Ahead of the President’s arrival tomorrow, Secretary of State Clinton “proposed that major economies including the U.S. come up with $100 billion a year over the next decade for developing nations to fight climate change, an eleventh hour effort to break an impasse here on climate-change talks,” reported a separate Wall Street Journal article.  In an effort to push negotiations forward, Senator Kerry spoke on the conference floor to assure the international community that the U.S. Senate would act swiftly on climate change legislation.  According to the Washington Independent, “Kerry highlighted the highlighted the cooperation of Senator Lindsey Graham a conservative Republican, and Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV), a staunch supporter of coal industry interests, to demonstrate the brightening prospects for stateside climate legislation. But he emphasized the need for action by other leading emitters ‘to assure a senator from Ohio that steel workers in his state won’t lose their jobs to India and China because those countries are not participating in a way that is measurable, reportable and verifiable.’”

Unfortunately, extreme conservatives in Congress have chosen to play the role of spoiler, traveling to Copenhagen in order to undermine negotiations while denying the effects of climate change.  The Boston Globe reported on Senator James Inhofe’s (R – OK)  arrival at the talks, saying the Senator’s “message for negotiators was that Congress will never pass a cap-and-trade bill to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and he reiterated his stance that manmade global warming is not occurring.”  Rep. Joe Barton (R –TX), who also traveled to Copenhagen, said over the weekend that “on a net basis, there’s ample evidence that warming generically — however it is caused — is a net benefit to mankind.”  [WSJ, 12/16/09. WSJ, 12/17/09. Washington Independent, 12/16/09. Boston Globe, 12/17/09.  Rep. Joe Barton, via Think Progress, 12/14/09]

Obstructionists ignore the real national security threats posed by climate change.  Despite the misinformation being promulgated by climate change deniers, climate change poses a serious security threat to both the U.S. and the world, making it is absolutely critical for the U.S. to take steps to address this issue.  NPR reported on Monday: “Global warming is now officially considered a threat to U.S. national security. For the first time, Pentagon planners in 2010 will include climate change among the security threats identified in the Quadrennial Defense Review, the Congress-mandated report that updates Pentagon priorities every four years. The reference to climate change follows the establishment in October of a new Center for the Study of Climate Change at the Central Intelligence Agency.  But the new attention to climate concerns among U.S. security officials does not mean the Pentagon and the CIA have taken sides in the debate over the validity of data on global warming. As with nuclear terrorism, deadly pandemics or biological warfare, it only means they want to be prepared. ‘I always look at the worst case,’ says one senior intelligence official who follows climate issues. ‘Whether it's global warming or the chance of Country A invading Country B, I just assume the most likely outcome is the worst one.’”

Climate change poses an acute threat to developing countries, which are badly-prepared to either deal with or adapt to the consequences of mass migration and/or starvation that will result from the temperature shifts or flooding caused by climate change.  This potential reality led the National Intelligence Council, in its recent Global Trends 2025 report, to argue that global warming was one of three major threats that could destabilize the international system. The NIC warned that climate refugees, resource wars, and an increase in destructive weather events could all undermine American and international security.  Retired Vice Admiral Lee Gunn wrote in the New York Times that, “climate change will lead to increased conflicts around the world because of water and agricultural shortages, changes in patterns of human migration, and further destabilization in areas like South Asia, potentially fostering an increase in global terrorism.  Climate change has already contributed to conflicts in regions like Darfur; it has already affected United States military operations; and it will increasingly affect American military planning for contingencies around the world. And if we don't lead the way on curbing these changes, others will.” [NPR, 12/14/09. Global Trends 2025, 11/08. Lee Gun, 8/20/09]

As the world looks to the U.S. for leadership, the Senate needs to act on climate change legislation.  As the world’s largest per capita carbon emitter, responsible for nearly a quarter of the world’s global carbon emissions, the United States holds a unique responsibility to act on climate change.  As a result, the world is looking to us for leadership.  When Connie Hedegaard, the Danish minister in charge of the negotiations, was asked why there had been little progress over the years she simply said “Things simply could not move unless there was progress on the American side,” referring to the Bush administration’s failure to address climate change.  Yet, due to the obstruction by climate change deniers such as Senator Inhofe, “The Kerry-Boxer legislation... has passed only one of the six committees with jurisdiction,” according to Science Magazine.  

Fortunately,  the administration recognizes the urgency needed and is moving ahead to address climate change.  This is most evident by last week’s “much-anticipated announcement, (by) the Environmental Protection Agency (who) said that six gases, including carbon dioxide and methane, pose a danger to the environment and the health of Americans and that the agency would start drawing up regulations to reduce those emissions,” reported the Washington Post.  However, the Post goes on to point out that,“EPA regulation is no one's preferred outcome -- not even the EPA's [Administrator Lisa] Jackson, [who] said her agency and other administration officials would still prefer if Congress acted before they did.  Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), a leading proponent of a Senate climate bill, issued a statement after the EPA's announcement saying, ‘The message to Congress is crystal clear: Get moving.’”  

If the world moves ahead of the U.S. with an agreement at Copenhagen, it will be up to Capitol Hill to catch up.  The New York Times reports that “Sizing up those meetings, [Sen. John] Kerry said he thinks it would be ‘realistic and necessary’ to hold the next U.N. meeting in June or July 2010 to wrap up the leftover work from Copenhagen on a full-fledged international treaty. Many say that whatever schedule President Obama signs off on here will become the de facto backstop for Capitol Hill action during the 2010 midterm election campaign.’ ‘I think there will be a deadline for the Senate coming out of this,’ said Nigel Purvis, a former State Department climate negotiator now working as a Washington-based consultant.” [Connie Hedegaard via UPI, 12/16/09. Washington Post, 12/8/09. Science Magazine, 12/16/09. NY Times, 12/16/09]

What We’re Reading

NATO’s Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, met with Russian military officials to seek military assistance for Afghanistan. The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan has caused trepidation in Tajikistan with the number of refugees growing.  Additionally, a House of Representatives’ oversight subcommittee said Wednesday that it has begun a wide-ranging investigation into allegations that private security companies hired to protect Defense Department convoys are paying off warlords and the Taliban to ensure safe passage.

Pakistan's Supreme Court nullified a controversial deal that had given President Asif Ali Zardari and thousands of other government officials amnesty from prosecution on corruption charges. Parts of the Pakistani military and intelligence services are accused of mounting a campaign to harass American diplomats.

The Obama administration announced today that it would join allies at the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in raising $100 billion by 2020 to help the world's poorest countries adapt to climate change.

Militants in Iraq have used $26 off-the-shelf software to intercept live video feeds from U.S. Predator drones, potentially providing them with information they need to evade or monitor U.S. military operations, say defense officials.

Iran successfully test fired an enhanced version of a solid-fuel medium-range missile which could potentially hit Israel or Europe. Iranian officials are also trying to humiliate political opposition activists by forcing males to wear traditional female clothing, like the hijab, as political propaganda.

Documents reveal that the Department of Homeland Security may have been collecting intelligence against American citizens without significant due cause.

The leader of one of Mexico's most notorious drug cartels was killed during a shootout with Mexican forces.

Prince Saud al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister for the past 25 years, reflects on his legacy and wishes there had been more traction to build a Palestinian state.

Kenyan slum artists continue to overflow the capital Nairobi with street art, even in these brutal economic times.

Commentary of the Day

The New York Times asks why former Air Force Colonel Morris Davis was seemingly fired by the Congressional Research Service for speaking out against torture and other detainee policies as a private citizen.

David Ignatius argues that partnering with Pakistan will actually strengthen Pakistan sovereignty, and not diminish it, as some Pakistani commentators have said.

Benedict Rogers reminds us that while the Burmese military junta may be flirting with a form of détente with the West, it still continues to be one of the world’s major human rights violators.