7/17/09

Over the last few weeks the world’s attention has drifted away from events in Iran. But the situation remains volatile more than a month after the elections. The opposition seems to be maintaining unity among key figures and has refused to back down. Today former Iranian president, senior cleric and apparent opposition leader Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani spoke at Friday prayers at Tehran University, a symbolic center of both dissent and revolutionary fervor – that drew thousands of demonstrators again into the streets of Tehran. Rafsanjani took on the Supreme Leader, saying that Iran was in “crisis” and that the Iranian regime must not turn its back on the republican aspects of the revolution, arguing that it is vital to restore the voters’ faith in the Iranian political system. The violent crackdown by the Iranian regime has led to world-wide condemnation and has brought key stakeholders in potential negotiations closer together.   US diplomacy has had a dual purpose – rebuilding international consensus toward a tough stance on Iran if need be and, by signaling willingness to engage, chipping away at the consensus inside Iran that the country must stand united against a Western threat at all costs. Continued American commitment to negotiations sends a clear signal to the Iranian demonstrators that a new relationship with the West is possible and that the obstacle standing in the way is not the United States but the Iranian regime.

Iran’s rolling “crisis” continues, as demonstrators take to the streets following Rafsanjani’s sermon at Friday prayers. Reuters reported this morning: “In apparent defiance of Iran's supreme leader, a powerful cleric declared his country in crisis after a disputed poll, and tens of thousands of protesters used Friday prayers to stage the biggest show of dissent for weeks.”  “[L]eading opposition cleric, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, harshly assailed the government’s handling of what he termed a ‘crisis,’” according to the New York Times. The Times article continued, saying: “Mr. Rafsanjani is one of the main backers of the runner-up, Mir Hussein Moussavi, who was sitting in the first row in his first official appearance since he was defeated in the election. Mr. Rafsanjani’s remarks were significant both for their content and their tone. It was the first time that a person of his standing in the clerical hierarchy had called the situation in Iran a crisis.”  Reuters described Rafsanjani’s remarks as “a clear challenge to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has upheld the election result and accused foreign powers of fomenting the unrest.”  Meanwhile, “[o]utside Tehran University, the longstanding venue for Friday prayers, police used tear gas and batons to try to disperse supporters of defeated presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi. At least 15 people were arrested, a witness said,” the Reuters article continued.  [NY Times, 7/17/09. Reuters, 7/17/09]

The Iranian regime now faces the most unified international approach in years – with US at forefront. During the Bush years, divisions among our allies complicated efforts to mount an international response toward Iran.  Now, due to the reactions against Iran’s violent crackdown and the Obama administration’s diplomatic efforts, integral stakeholders are closer to a common outlook on how to address the Iran problem. The G-8 summit earlier this month issued a statement which “deplore[d] post-electoral violence, which led to the loss of lives of Iranian civilians. Interference with media, unjustified detentions of journalists and recent arrests of foreign nationals are unacceptable,” and “call[ed] upon Iran to solve the situation through democratic dialogue on the basis of the rule of law.” French President Nicolas Sarkozy explained the European approach:  "We want to give negotiations every chance... If that works, then great. If that leads nowhere, then that won't be without consequences.” Obama said of the G-8 response that “what we wanted was exactly what we got.” Speaking this past week before the Council on Foreign Relations, Secretary of State Clinton struck a similar tone, saying that we (Americans) were “appalled by the manner in which the government used violence to quell the voices of the Iranian people, and then tried to hide its actions by arresting foreign journalists and nationals, and expelling them, and cutting off access to technology. As we and our G-8 partners have made clear, these actions are deplorable and unacceptable.”  The G-8 condemnation, Secretary Clinton’s remarks, and statements from Sarkozy and other European leaders indicate the emergence of a common U.S. –European approach toward Iran. [G8 Declaration on Responsible Leadership for a Sustainable Future: Political Issues, 7/8/09. President Barack Obama via the AP, 7/10/09. Secretary of State Clinton 7/05/09. The Hill, 7/09/09. Vice President Joseph Biden, 2/07/09. NSN Daily Update, 7/07/09. NY Times, 7/10/09. Reuters, 7/05/09. White House, 7/06/09]

Administration’s calls for engagement undercuts regime hardliners and “weakened the glue” that held oppressive regime together.  National Iranian American Council President Trita Parsi puts it this way:  “President George W. Bush sought to destabilize and bring about regime change in Iran for eight years through isolation, threats, and financial support for anti-Tehran groups...Obama's diplomatic outreach and removal of this threat perception has not necessarily created fissures among the Iranian elite in and of itself, but it has weakened the glue that created unity among Iran's many political factions.”  A bellicose response from the United States that closed off the prospects for engagement, as advocated by many conservatives, would easily be spun by the regime as evidence that the opposition is American-backed and that the intent of the West is hostile.

That is why the Administration has gone out of its way to express both its concern at post-election repression and its commitment to engagement, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did Wednesday: “[n]either the President nor I have any illusions that dialogue with the Islamic Republic will guarantee success of any kind, and the prospects have certainly shifted in the weeks following the election. But we also understand the importance of offering to engage Iran and giving its leaders a clear choice: whether to join the international community as a responsible member or to continue down a path to further isolation.  Direct talks provide the best vehicle for presenting and explaining that choice.”  [Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 7/05/09. Former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nick Burns, 6/11/09. Trita Parsi, Christian Science Monitor, 6/22/09]

What we’re reading

A top aide to exiled Honduran President Manuel Zelaya said the ousted leader was heading home Thursday to set up an alternative seat of government inside the country, setting up a  headquarters in a "final battle" against the coup leaders.

India and Pakistan agreed Thursday to increase communication and information-sharing in an effort to prevent terrorist attacks and discord between the two nations.

Japan's unpopular Prime Minister Taro Aso survived efforts within his own party to oust him ahead of elections next month.

Gunmen killed a guard and a U.N. worker during a kidnapping attempt in northwestern Pakistan on Thursday, officials said.

The death of a Canadian soldier in Afghanistan Thursday brings this month's number of international military fatalities to 47, making July the deadliest month for foreign troops in Afghanistan thus far.

Simultaneous explosions hit two neighboring American hotels in central Jakarta on Friday morning, killing at least nine people and injuring dozens more, according to security officials.

 The U.N. Security Council on Thursday banned travel and froze assets of 10 North Korean individuals and businesses linked to the country's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, marking the first time the United Nations has directly penalized members of the nation's military and business elite.

The Kurdish Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani warned of strains with the Maliki government in Baghdad, saying the two are closer to war than at any time since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown formally backs Ton Blair to be President of Europe. Meanwhile, swine flu continues to plague Britain, with thousands of new cases being reported each week as the NHS plans on a worst case scenario of 65,000 deaths.

Commentary of the day

Ehud Olmert in the Washington Post said the United States provides Israel with crucial security and economic aid while sketching out a path to achieving lasting peace in the region. Meanwhile, the Crown Prince of Bahrain Shaikh Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa asserts we need fresh thinking if the Arab Peace Initiative is to have the impact it deserves on the crisis that impoverishes Palestinians and endangers Israel's security.

The LA Times asserts that in the wake of Chechen human rights advocate Natalia Estemirova killing, President Ramzan Kadyrov's vow to oversee the investigation is a “cynical joke”.