7/10/09

The G-8 summit issued a joint communiqué strongly condemning the post-election crackdown in Iran today. The UK’s Gordon Brown called it a “strong” statement and President Obama noted that the statement was even more noteworthy because Russia signed on to the communiqué. The statement comes as demonstrators again take to the streets in Iran -- and the regime continues to suppress them brutally. Many news outlets reported that the Obama administration was disappointed because the G-8 did not agree on new sanctions to address Iran’s nuclear program. But this – as President Obama explained – was never expected or anticipated, especially since Russia, which has been opposed to sanctions, is a member of the G-8. However, the G-8 did put additional pressure on Iran, giving it until September to enter negotiations over its nuclear program, at which point the position toward Iran will be reevaluated at the G-20 conference. French President Nicolas Sarkozy confirmed that if there was no progress than Iran would face tougher sanctions. This is reflective of a growing convergence of international opinion on Iran – forged both by the diplomatic efforts of the Obama administration and by the appalling actions of the Iranian regime. In the last month, Europe has moved toward a much harder line position that is closer to that of the United States, even threatening to pull all 27 of its ambassadors and impose broader sanctions. Additionally, Obama’s efforts to enlist Russia in talks over Iran’s nuclear program over the last week appear to have paid off, as Russia has signed on to the communiqué condemning Iran’s election response and agreed to a joint threat assessment with the U.S. This convergence is significant as Europe and Russia have much more leverage over Iran than the United States. The Obama administration is clearly demonstrating that it understands – unlike its predecessor – the role of international cooperation in effectively dealing with Iran.

G-8 – including Russia – takes strong stance on Iran, condemns post-election violence, and sets time limit for negotiations – not “dragging feet” as some news outlets report.  A FOX News correspondent blogged the confusion:  “Obama said he read the articles where it said he was trying to get sanctions and that's not accurate. The US got what it wanted. The real story here is consensus in the statement, including Russia (the statement condemns the violent crackdown in Iran after the elections) agreed... Iranian leadership [will] look at the G8 statement and realize world opinion is clear.”  This refers to articles like the one in Politico titled, “Despite President Obama, G-8 drags feet on Iran” which stated that, “[a] declaration the Group of Eight industrialized countries issued following a top-level meeting in L’Aquila, Italy Wednesday set no firm deadline for Iran to resume negotiations over its nuclear efforts and made no mention of tightening sanctions on Tehran if its recalcitrance continues.” Time Magazine ran a similar story. Yet this was never the intent of the G8 Summit, nor was it expected that Russia would support sanctions against Iran.   The AP writes today that, “[s]peaking as the G-8 summit concluded in Italy, Obama stressed that he and others were not looking for their summit partners to embrace sanctions at this week's meeting. Instead, he said that ‘what we wanted was exactly what we got’ — a statement of condemnation about Iran's actions in the wake of its disputed presidential election.” In addition, Reuters reports that “[The] Group of Eight major powers will give Iran until September to accept negotiations over its nuclear ambitions or else face tougher sanctions, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Wednesday.” [Politico, 7/9/09. Time, 7/9/09. Fox News, 7/9/09. AP, 7/10/09. BBC, 7/9/09. Reuters, 7/7/09]

Days after a violent crackdown on demonstrators, Iranians take to the streets once more to protest elections.  Weeks after Iran’s presidential election, political turbulence continues.  “Thousands of anti-government demonstrators were attacked with batons and tear gas by security forces Thursday as they tried to gather around Tehran University for the first protests in about two weeks, defying warnings from the authorities that they would crush any demonstrations,” reported the Washington Post.”  The Post continued, describing how “[t]he protests were called to commemorate an attack on students at the university in 1999,” as part of a larger strategy by the demonstrators to use popular anniversaries to rally in public.  

The latest protests capped a period in which pro-government forces, led by Supreme Leader Khamenei, appeared to tighten control, even as opposition factions within Iran’s political and clerical establishment pushed for concessions. On Tuesday, President Ahmadinejad declared that Iran had “entered a new era in both the domestic sphere and at the international level,” and would “tread on that path more powerfully than before.”  Ahmadinejad’s declaration followed indications from opposition figure Mir-Hossein Mousavi of “plans to form a new political party aimed at reining in the power of the Islamic republic's leadership,” as part of an effort to turn ad-hoc protests into an enduring political movement, according to CNN.  Iran’s clerical establishment has also continued to show deep divisions following the election. Iran expert Geneive Abdo assessed that “it is likely that the clerics are split... they do not want to allow Khamenei and Ahmadinejad to decide Iran's fate without them, nor do they want to risk being further discredited in the eyes of the people simply because they are part of the theocratic system that is becoming more and more repressive.” [Washington Post, 7/10/09. NY Times, 7/10/09. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 7/08/09. CNN, 7/06/09. LA Times, 7/08/09. NY Times, 7/05/09. Geneive Abdo, June 2009]  

To deal effectively with Iran, U.S. needs international cooperation.  Other countries have much more leverage with Iran than the United States, which has not had diplomatic relations with Iran for 30 years.  As the AP writes, “The United States has little leverage with Tehran. Formal relations were broken off after hardline students stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979, and the U.S. has imposed trade sanctions on all but humanitarian goods and basic foodstuffs. The Europeans, who have extensive trade ties with Iran, are the lead negotiators in trying to rein in Iran's nuclear program to prevent it from producing weapons, and they are reluctant to use their economic leverage over the election protests.”  Russia is another necessary partner, as Paul Richter of the LA Times writes, “In its role as spoiler, Russia has the leverage to undermine U.S. efforts to contain Iran's nuclear program... Russia's long-standing economic relationship with Iran has been a principal hurdle to American efforts to curb Tehran's nuclear ambitions.” [AP, 6/22/09. LA Times, 7/7/09. NY Times, 7/7/09. NY Times, 7/1/09]

International community’s position on Iran has evolved, drawing closer to a unified position.  During the Bush years, divisions complicated efforts to mount an international response toward Iran’s actions.  Now, due to the Obama administration’s diplomatic efforts and reaction against Iran’s own belligerence, integral stakeholders are closer to a common outlook on how to address Iran problem.  Almost one year ago, the New York Times reported on the deep fissures marking the international community’s stance toward Iran: “Complicating the diplomacy was the fact that before Saturday’s talks, the six powers were not united on a joint strategy on how to proceed. The American delegation had told its partners that Mr. Burns’s appearance was a one-time event and that Iran had two weeks to decide whether to accept the ‘freeze-for-freeze’ formula. Germany, Russia and China, by contrast, argued that there should be time to explore the negotiating track with Iran. There were other disagreements among the six powers as well. France and Britain have argued that there should be a precise definition of what the Iranians would have to freeze to open the way to formal talks.”  

Since taking office, President Obama has made a concerted effort to attempt to harmonize the international community’s stance.  In February, President Biden pledged a new era of cooperation with Europe on thorny issues like Iran, and the Administration has also sought to enlist support from Russia on its Iran policy.  Efforts at forging a shared policy have also been aided by Iran’s belligerence, particularly their baseless claims of foreign interference in the post-election period. In response to these allegations, and out of concern for the actions of the Iranian regime, the international community has adopted a remarkably tough position. The European Union has considered withdrawing all 27 ambassadors from Iran, a move the Times suggested would be a “would be a rare and unusually forceful display of European anger at Iran’s crackdown on dissent after the June 12 presidential election.”  Reuters also reported that “EU countries summoned Iranian ambassadors to protest the detention of British embassy employees, and are mulling tougher measures in future.”  At this week’s summit in Moscow, the Obama administration also moved a step closer toward gaining Russian cooperation on Iran, with Russia agreeing to engage in a joint-threat assessment on Iran’s nuclear program.  All these signs indicated that the International community was drawing much closer to presenting a united front to Iran.  [NY Times, 7/20/08. Vice President Joseph Biden, 2/07/09. NSN Daily Update, 7/07/09. NY Times, 7/10/09. NY Times, 7/6/09. Reuters, 7/05/09. White House, 7/06/09]
 

What We’re Reading

The G-8 Leaders agreed to raise $20 billion for food and farm aid over the next three years.

China banned prayer gatherings at mosques in an attempt to prevent further ethnic violence in the Xinjiang region.

David Haight, a top U.S. colonel in Afghanistan, warned that should Hamid Karzai win in next month’s presidential elections, apathy from ordinary Afghans may turn to violence.

Iraq’s Kurdish leaders are pushing ahead with a new constitution for their semiautonomous region, alarming American and Iraqi official who fear for the country’s unity.

A senior U.S. arms control expert stressed the informal link between the new strategic arms agreement with Russia and putting pressure on Iran.

400,000 people were forced to flee their homes after an earthquake rocked China’s southwestern Yunnan province, killing one and destroying thousands of buildings. United Nations humanitarian agencies prepared to assist 20,000 people displaced by rainfall and flooding in the West African nation of Benin.

North Korea has so far delayed sending two convicted U.S. journalists to a prison labor camp, in a possible scheme to seek talks with the U.S. on their release. Instead, they are being kept in a guest house in Pyongyang.

South Korean was bombarded with a third wave of cyberattacks. North Korea is suspected of being the culprit, but so far there has been no conclusive evidence.

President Obama’s visit to Ghana sparked envy across the rest of Africa. Ghana has become a regional leader since its democratic transition in the early 1990s.

Somali Islamist insurgents beheaded seven people accused of espionage and abandoning Islam.

A new form of the Ebola virus has been discovered in the Philippines. Experts are concerned that it could mutate and pose a new risk to humans.

Al Qaeda’s affiliate in North Africa has carried out a string of killings, bombings and other attacks on Westerners and African security forces in recent weeks, leading counterterrorism officials to speculate that foreign fighters are returning home from the Iraq war with a wider range of bomb-making skills.

Commentary of the Day

Joe Cirincione pushes back against Charles Krauthammer’s Washington Post piece that calls the U.S./Russia nuclear deal “plumage” and asserts that Russia should build more nukes. Cirincione says the “Post's promotion of this fantasy could lead to global disaster.”

Nicholas Bequelin argues that the eruption of ethnic violence in Xinjiang reflects the failure of the Chinese government’s policies towards national minorities.

The LA Times calls the Senate climate-change bill a “test of this country’s commitment to deal with the problem.”

Jon O’Brien says a meeting between Obama and the Pope will be one of symbolism, not substance.

Fred Kaplan writes that Obama’s deal on weapons could win Russia’s cooperation on toughter issues later.