11/20/08

Experts agree that the release of a new tape by Al Qaeda’s second in command Ayman al-Zawahri indicates that Al Qaeda feels threatened and is on its heels after Obama’s resounding victory. President-elect Obama’s diverse background, along with his pledge to reverse many of the policies and approaches of the Bush administration on issues such as detentions at Guantanamo, torture and the war in Iraq has served to dramatically improve America’s image, especially in the Muslim world. Counter-terrorism expert Richard Clarke explained, “Most of all, by returning to American values the world admires, Obama sets al Qaeda back enormously in the battle of ideas, the ideological struggle which determines whether al Qaeda will continue to have significant support in the Islamic world.”  Having thrived on the decline in America’s world image, the impact of Obama’s victory provides a direct challenge to Al Qaeda’s negative depiction of the United States. Additionally, Obama’s emphasis on shifting US attention from Iraq to Afghanistan represents a direct physical threat to Al Qaeda’s leadership. America’s improved global image and the new administration’s focus on Afghanistan threatens Al Qaeda and has led to what experts see as a confused, racist, and off-kilter response reflective of an organization on the defensive.

Al-Qaeda is on its heels as Obama election transforms image of the U.S.  The world met news of the Obama victory with resounding enthusiasm.  From a Pakistani man saying “[The election] promises hope and courage for the lovers of democracy throughout the world, including Pakistan,” to a Middle Eastern newspaper saying Obama is “the best person to repair the world’s image of the United States,” to the New York Times report that “Most Iranians followed the elections closely and cheered Mr. Obama’s victory,” Obama’s election gave the image of America in the world an immediate boost, particularly the Muslim world.  Rohan Gunaratna, director of a terrorism study center at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, said that “Al-Qaeda has noted Obama's potential to make progress in repairing America's reputation among Muslims, damaged under President George W. Bush.” Obama’s election and global support go against the al Qaeda narrative of the US as an evil empire that oppresses its own minorities and has little regard for the rest of the world.  As Richard Clarke explains, “Obama’s election has taken the wind out of al Qaeda's sails in much of the Islamic world because it demonstrates America’s renewed commitment to multiculturalism, human rights, and international law. It also proves to many that democracy can work and overcome ethnic, sectarian, or racial barriers.” [BBC, 11/11/08. Bloomberg, 11/5/08. Gallup, 10/21/08. NSN Press Release, 11/19/08. Middle East Times, 10/17/08]

President-elect Obama’s promise to refocus on the vulnerable Af-Pak region provides a direct threat to al-Qaeda’s leadership.  For al-Qaeda, Barack Obama’s election has signaled America’s intent to withdraw from Iraq and re-focus on the extremist safe-haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Signs indicate that the incoming Obama administration also intends to develop a comprehensive strategy that recognizes that the problems afflicting the region cannot be solved through military means alone. The Washington Post noted that “President-elect Barack Obama also intends to renew the U.S. commitment to the hunt for Osama bin Laden, a priority the president-elect believes President Bush has played down after years of failing to apprehend the al-Qaeda leader.” According to Richard Clarke, this spells trouble for al-Qaeda: “Obama’s commitment to withdraw from Iraq also takes away an al Qaeda propaganda tenet: that the U.S. seeks to occupy oil rich Arab lands. His commitment to defeat al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan also challenges their plans.”  By re-committing to the region that our 16 intelligence agencies agree contains the greatest threat to U.S., the incoming Obama administration has sent a forceful message to al-Qaeda’s senior leadership.  [Washington Post, 11/11/08. Richard Clarke, 11/19/08]

Al-Qaeda apparatus appears in disarray, as Obama’s election seems to put organization on the defensive.  Ayman al-Zawahri’s confused, racially tinged attack on Barack Obama demonstrates al-Qaeda’s growing concern that his administration poses a broad threat to its worldwide operations.  There has been widespread consensus among counterterrorism experts that al-Zawahri’s remarks show that al-Qaeda is on its heels. “Lawrence Wright, the author of a book on Al Qaeda, The Looming Tower, called the tape an attempt at ‘spin control’ as Al Qaeda struggled to assimilate an election that challenged its worldview.” Terrorism expert RP Eddy explained that “Al Qaeda recognizes that the promise of the Obama administration has already increased global goodwill and thereby undermines al Qaeda's extremist message and efforts to fundraise and recruit.” University of Maryland Professor Ronald Walters “said that if the tape was an attempt to reach black Americans or the third world, it was ‘ham handed’ and futile. ‘You’re talking about someone who looks like the rest of the world, and that’s got to be threatening to them,’ he said, referring to Mr. Obama.” And, according to al-Qaeda communications expert Evan Kohlmann, “[b]y playing the race card so quickly and so brazenly, al-Zawahiri may end up causing backlash against Al-Qaida in the very constituencies he is seeking to woo.” [NY Times, 11/20/08. NSN Press Release, 11/19/08. Evan Kohlmann, 11/19/08]

Quick Hits

Experts say that Iran has obtained enough material to produce one nuclear bomb, though it has not reached a “nuclear threshold” as additional steps, including designing the bomb, must be taken.

European and Asian markets fell after the Dow Jones dropped 430 points to close below 8,000 at a 7-year low yesterday.  U.S. jobless claims hit a 16-year high.  The fate of an auto bailout for Detroit seems in doubt.  Iceland received a $2.1 billion loan from the IMF followed by a $2.5 billion loan from other Nordic countries.  Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin spoke on the economic crisis, calling it “impossible to avert” and caused by U.S. recklessness.

A U.N. report found that the Syrian site bombed by Israel last year resembled a nuclear reactor and had traces of uranium, in the first independent investigation of the suspected secret nuclear reactor.

For the first time, defense lawyers for detainees toured the highly restricted Camp 7 detention center at Guantanamo Bay.

A suicide bombing in Khost, Afghanistan, wounded two U.S. soldiers.  Sources say that cooperation between NATO and Pakistani forces is improving along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

Evidence contradicts Rwanda’s official denial of a role in the DR Congo fighting, indicating that some rebel soldiers have been recruited from Rwanda’s army.

Countries bordering the Red Sea (Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Yemen) will meet today to discuss curtailing piracy in the region.  More Russian warships are on their way to the area to crack down on attacks.

The Pakistani government protested suspected U.S. missile strikes on Pakistani territory to the American ambassador.

South Africa will withhold aid from Zimbabwe until the political stalemate is resolved and a representative government is in place.  Zimbabwe refused a humanitarian visit by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, and Graca Machel, wife of Nelson Mandela.

Suspected Muslim militants fired on U.S. troops in the Philippines though no one was hurt.

A grenade explosion at the Thai Prime Minister’s office complex in Bangkok killed one and wounded 23.  The office has been occupied by anti-government demonstrators since late August.

U.S. soldiers in Baghdad are shifting to a “softer approach” and post-combat roles promoting reconciliation.