10/9/08

The New York Times reports that a nearly completed draft of a new National Intelligence Estimate on Afghanistan finds that the situation there is in a “downward spiral.” The NIE confirms what has been apparent for some time: the situation in Afghanistan is increasingly precarious. While the Bush Doctrine may have been “preventive war,” the concept of “prevention” clearly has never applied to their actual handling of foreign and domestic issues. With the current economic crisis, Iraq, Katrina, and Pakistan, the Bush administration only changed its approach after each became a full blown crisis. Similarly, violence has increased every year in Afghanistan but it was not until this summer that the Bush administration finally announced that it would change its approach and send more troops to Afghanistan. This is welcome, but a comprehensive adjustment in the overall strategy well beyond any troop increase is needed. Instead of ignoring Afghanistan, as Senator McCain has done, the U.S. must shift its focus and resources from Iraq back to Afghanistan and to those who attacked us on 9-11.

National Intelligence Estimate finds Afghanistan in a “downward spiral.”  A draft National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Afghanistan found that the country is in chaos.  Violence has skyrocketed, but beyond the escalation of extremist attacks, the report also assesses “that many of Afghanistan’s most vexing problems are of the country’s own making,” according to intelligence officials.  “[R]ampant corruption within the government of President Hamid Karzai” and “the destabilizing impact of the booming heroin trade, which by some estimates accounts for 50 percent of Afghanistan’s economy” have contributed to the deteriorating situation.  The NIE’s “conclusions represent a harsh verdict on decision-making in the Bush administration,” whose “lack of leadership” contributed to the worsening crisis, according to Henry Crumpton, formerly the State Department’s top counter-terrorism official.  According to the Washington Post, alarms were not sounded until early this year, “when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice returned from a trip to Afghanistan in early February,” but “seven months would pass before the administration, distracted by issues as serious as the Iraq war and as far afield as the Olympics, was seized with the urgency to put a new strategy in place.”  [NY Times,10/9/08. Washington Post, 10/9/08]

McCain thinks Afghanistan is the same as Iraq, it’s not.  In 2003, McCain said we could just “muddle through in Afghanistan.” Now that the situation has deteriorated, McCain’s plan for Afghanistan is essentially just with more troops on the ground.  When comparing Afghanistan to Iraq at Tuesday’s debate McCain said, “most importantly, we have to have the same strategy.” But this has been insufficient. General Petraeus recently said, “People often ask, ‘What did you learn from Iraq that might be transferable to Afghanistan?’  The first lesson, the first caution really, is that every situation like this is truly and absolutely unique, and has its own context and specifics and its own texture.”  McKiernan argued that more troops “are urgently required to combat a worsening insurgency, but he stated emphatically that no Iraq-style ‘surge’ of forces will end the conflict there.”  Petraeus also “says his tactics in Iraq cannot simply be transposed to Afghanistan. Indeed, there are big differences: Iraq is far richer, has a greater density of both American and local forces, its command is more unified, and insurgents enjoy nothing like the cross-border safe havens that the Taliban has in Pakistan’s tribal belt.”  The surge in Iraq is not a cookie-cutter strategy that can just be applies to all insurgencies. [Council on Foreign Relations, 11/5/03. The Economist, 10/2/08. Washington Post, 10/2/08. New York Times, 10/1/08. CNN, 8/7/08]

A comprehensive strategy is needed in Afghanistan. The U.S. needs more than a military-centric strategy to arrest Afghanistan’s “downward spiral,” it must also pursue a broader strategy that focuses on developing the Afghan state.  More troops are needed to arrest the increase in violence and the U.S. must develop a strategy to deal with the Taliban-Al Qaeda safe havens in Pakistan. But ultimate success requires building the capacity of the state that will put Afghanistan on the path to self government. The U.S. must help Afghanistan expand development and reconstruction activities, address the opium trade, encourage efforts to fight corruption, and improve the rule of law. While Iraq has received a total of $34.2 billion in reconstruction funding over five years, Afghanistan by comparison has received just $11.5 billion over almost seven years that U.S. forces have been on the ground and just $1.1 billion for 2008. Since the war began, “reconstruction goals have not been met due to inadequate coordination and implementation of a reconstruction strategy, insufficient funding, the mismanagement of reconstruction monies and corruption, the sidelining of the Afghan government, and growing insecurity.” This must change. While Afghanistan has never been a western-style nation-state with a strong central government, progress can be made in stabilizing the country if urgent and comprehensive action is taken.  [New York Times, 10/4/08. National Security Network, 5/08. CRS, 02/08. Center for American Progress, 8/4/08]

Quick Hits

The U.S. government may take ownership stakes in banks as part of implementing the $700 billion bailout plan to try to restore confidence in the financial system.

European stocks rallied but Asian stocks remain mixed after yesterday’s coordinated international rate cuts.

Iceland’s financial meltdown continues as it nationalized its largest bank, halted all share trading, and will be sued by the U.K. over deposits lost by British shareholders.

The New York Times has an editorial noting that regardless of the election, “the United States is on its way out of Iraq” because “without a major pullback from Iraq, the Pentagon will not have enough troops to fight in Afghanistan.”

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko called for parliamentary elections, the third such election in less than three years, after the ruling coalition collapsed.  The new government may be less interested in NATO membership.

North Korea banned the IAEA from the entire Yongbyon nuclear facility.

A U.S. appeals court issued a temporary stay of the order for the federal government to release 17 Chinese Muslims held at Guantanamo Bay, in order to have time to review the government’s request for a longer delay.

Bombings in Pakistan killed 10 and injured 14 today, including attacks on police in Islamabad and a prison bus that happened to be near school children.

The United States will ask NATO to target Afghanistan’s heroin trade, while also requesting more troops from European allies.

Iraqi insurgents are increasingly using “sticky IEDs” to attack vehicles.  These magnetic bombs are easier to plant than conventional devices and harder to find.

Thailand dropped charges of treason against protest leaders, who say that they will surrender after days of violence.

Riots erupted in the mixed Israeli city of Acre during the Yom Kippur holiday.

Spencer Ackerman has a piece in the Washington Independent on how General David Petraeus’ policies align more with Barack Obama than John McCain.

New York City’s National Debt Clock has run out of digits.