Heather Hurlburt Quoted In U.S. News & World Report On North Korea’s Nuclear Testing
Expert: North Korea’s Nuclear Test Not About Obama’s State of the Union
By Rebekah Metzler
February 12, 2013 | U.S. News & World Report
A confirmed nuclear test in North Korea on the eve of President Barack Obama’s fifth State of the Union address is likely more about internal messaging than it is about international saber-rattling, experts say. The move also doesn’t necessarily mark a threshold of no return when it comes to North Korea’s ability as a nuclear power.
“They don’t clearly have a missile that can threaten the U.S.,” says Heather Hurlburt, executive director of the National Security Network and U.S. News foreign policy blogger. “It’s always bad news when a country explodes a nuclear device … [but] being able to blow up a nuclear device in a tunnel is really different then being able to fit a nuclear device on a missile and deliver it anywhere.”
The actions come at a transitional phase in regional politics, as new leaders have taken over in South Korea and China in recent months—not to mention the fact that Kim Jong-Un, North Korea’s leader, took over the top spot from his father, the country’s longtime head, Kim Jong-Il, about one year ago.
“They did this test on the anniversary of Kim Jong-Il’s birthday; so you have this very young, untested leader trying to demonstrate his legitimacy,” Hurlburt says. “There’s a big internal component to this that has very little to do with world affairs.”
North Korea has faced increasingly tough rounds of sanctions in recent months as they have continued to ramp up their nuclear and missile testing over the opposition of the international community, including the United Nations Security Council. China, North Korea’s greatest ally, also joined South Korea, Japan, the United States, and others in the latest international rebuke.
Matt Stumpf, director of the Asia Society’s Washington office, said the test also marks North Korea’s continued pursuit of nuclear power over the well-being of their people.
“Though the full impact of today’s events will depend on yet-to-be-determined nature of the nuclear technology tested, taking the North Koreans at their initial word means that they sought progress in miniaturizing a nuclear warhead for use with the missile technology it has also recently tested,” he said in a blog post. “This growing capacity significantly raises the level of the perceived threat to the United States, Japan and South Korea.”
He also said the move challenges China’s credibility as a regional negotiator and alters the calculus for moving forward.
“China had always favored a return to talks, and the American president had prominently committed to offer an open hand to those who would reciprocate,” Stumpf writes. “But, after this test, a new agreed framework — which delayed North Korea’s nuclear program in return for energy — or a return to the 2005 agreement is no longer viable.”
Hurlburt agrees the test complicates the China-North Korea relationship.
“The Chinese see North Korea as both an asset and a liability,” Hurlburt says. “The Chinese are not going to shut down the border, they’re not going to cut off trade, they are not going to stop seeing North Korea as an ally to some extent, but they’ve been stiff-arming Pyongyang.”
The latest nuclear test is also a signal from North Korea to China, she adds.
“They are saying to China, ‘Hey big brother, you can’t tell us what to do,’” she says.
Obama issued a statement soon after the news of the test broke, calling the action a “highly provocative act” that “undermines regional stability.”
“The danger posed by North Korea’s threatening activities warrants further swift and credible action by the international community,” said Obama in the release. “The United States will also continue to take steps necessary to defend ourselves and our allies. We will strengthen close coordination with allies and partners and work with our Six-Party partners, the United Nations Security Council, and other U.N. member states to pursue firm action.”
Following an emergency meeting Tuesday, the Security Council promised to take “significant action” against North Korea.
“You can’t just ignore this,” Hurlburt says. “There will be further sanctions—my guess is there will be further sanctions in which China participates, although not as much as the South Koreans, the Japanese, and the U.S. would like.”
Particularly given that Kim Jong-Un is still a fairly new leader, Hurlburt says the United States will act as the disciplinarian parent to North Korea’s petulant child.
“The point is to say to the North Koreans that there’s a way into more sanctions and there’s a way out of more sanctions,” she says. “[The U.S. will] say to the North Koreans, ‘Now you’ve made your point; there will be consequences. They will hurt your economy, they’ll make it harder to meet the needs of your people, and they’ll make it harder to get the international respect that you crave.’”
North Korea will also likely lose out on the prospect of more access with South Korea, something that looked to be on the cusp of changing thanks to the country’s new leadership.
“The North Koreans will lose, in the short- to medium-term they will lose the economic and the people to people ties to the South Koreans,” Hurlburt says.
But as intimidating as the prospect of a North Korea armed with nuclear missiles is, she says it’s not likely any country will move to take military action against it yet.
“The thing that would trigger military action is something that the South Koreans felt was taking military action,” Hurlburt says. “Because they are the ones at most risk with the tunnels pointed at their capital city.”
And that point hasn’t yet come.
For the original piece, click here
