Debating Iran
While Iran’s nuclear program has occupied a good amount of space in the national security and political debate, there is a growing consensus – both domestically and internationally – that the current strategy is working to push Iran toward a negotiated solution, which remains the best option for a sustainable solution to Iran’s nuclear program.
The current multifaceted U.S. strategy is having serious effects on the Iranian regime, effectively marshaling international pressure on Tehran:
Unrelenting economic pressure: This week the EU is ratcheting up pressure with a new round of sanctions that include a “ban on all financial transactions between European and Iranian banks, unless they relate to humanitarian aid. Iran’s central bank will face fresh restrictions, and the export of materials and metals used for industrial or military purposes will be prohibited. New rules will seek to curb the movement of Iranian oil tankers and cargos and impede the country’s ship-building capacities,” according to the Wall Street Journal.
This is only the most recent move. “The U.N. sanctions [against Iran], approved in June 2010, were only the opening salvo in a pressure campaign that would continue to gather steam over the following two years. Goaded at times by Congress, the White House enacted unprecedented restrictions on international commerce with Iran’s petroleum, shipping and banking sectors. The European Union adopted nearly identical measures and then went even further, imposing an unprecedented embargo on Iranian oil, effective July 1, 2012. Although Iran has weathered sanctions in the past, independent analysts say the impact this time has been staggering. Oil exports have plummeted by a third, forcing Iran to shut down oil wells and close petrochemical plants, depriving the country’s economy of billions of dollars each month. Iran’s currency, meanwhile, is in free fall, driving up food prices and jobless rates throughout the country,” reports the Washington Post. [WSJ, 10/15/12. Washington Post, 9/25/12 ]
International isolation: Alireza Nader of the RAND Corp. summarizes, “The administration has managed to build a wide and deep international coalition against Iran: The European Union has ceased imports of Iranian oil, while major Asian economies such as Japan, India, and South Korea, have substantially reduced their purchases. Iran is now largely shut out of the global financial system. Even Russia and China have moved away from their longtime partner: Russia has cancelled important weapons contracts, and China has backed out of major oil and gas projects with Iran. These developments had had a major impact on both Iran’s economy, and potentially its nuclear decision-making.” [Alireza Nader, 9/25/12]
Internal pressure: Perhaps most critical is the internal pressure that the regime is under, as it faces presidential elections next year. As Nader explains, “Public dissatisfaction with the Iranian regime is at an all-time high…political divisions within the regime highlighted by the 2009 uprising have intensified, apparently due to U.S. policies. Former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has warned the regime not to ignore sanctions, and emphasized the U.S. ability to inflict still greater pressure on the Islamic Republic. Abdullah Nouri, a former government minister, prominent reformist, and potential presidential candidate, has said that sanctions are a ‘trap’ Iran has fallen into and called for a national referendum on the nuclear program — directly contradicting Khamenei’s call for ‘national unity’ on the issue.” [Alireza Nader,9/25/12]
Growing consensus that the strategy is working:
Israel: the New York Times recently reported on “a shifting Israeli emphasis, at least for now, toward efforts to stop the Iranian nuclear program by means other than military action… The growing Israeli focus on a new round of sanctions comes amid reports of the deep impact that current sanctions are having on the Iranian economy. A recent internal report prepared by the Israeli Foreign Ministry stated that the sanctions might, according to some assessments, also be affecting the stability of the Iranian government, which insists that its nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes.” [NY Times, 10/2/12]
Iran: Teheran increasingly admits that sanctions are to blame for its economic situation. Iran’s leader Ayatollah Khomeini said, “They (sanctions) may create problems. Mismanagement may even increase these problems.” Faced with a collapsing currency and dire economic situation, Iranian President Ahmadinejad has turned to pleading with the Iranian public, “I ask you, dear people, do not change your money into foreign currency.” [Ali Khamenei via AP, 10/10/12. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad via NY Times, 10/2/12]
Movement back to negotiating table. Behind the rhetoric, there are signs of renewed Iranian efforts to find an exit ramp. This includes reports that the regime is eager to resume negotiations. Last month “European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton held a ‘useful and constructive’ four hour dinner meeting with Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili in Istanbul… at which he stressed Iran’s interest in continuing negotiations,” reports Laura Rozen. In addition, this week Ashton stated, “I absolutely do think there is room for negotiations… I hope we will be able to make progress very soon.” [al Monitor, 9/19/12. Catherine Ashton via Reuters, 10/15/12
Military, political leaders continue to share a bottom line: diplomacy is the way to create a sustainable solution. As President Obama made clear in his speech before the UN General Assembly, “America wants to resolve this issue through diplomacy, and we believe that there is still time and space to do so.” As Alireza Nader of RAND Corp. explains, “There is, however, one surefire way to reverse all this progress: An Israeli military attack against Iran would set U.S. diplomatic accomplishments back to square one. The international coalition against Iran could fall apart, many Iranians would rally around the flag, and Iran's isolation in the Arab could lessen.” [President Obama via Politico, 9/25/12. Alireza Nader, 9/25/12]
What We’re Reading
U.S. Secretary of State Clinton assumed responsibility for the deadly attack on the U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya.
Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan and Iranian President Ahmadinejad held a surprise meeting to discuss the conflict in Syria.
Egypt’s top court criticized the constitution draft prepared by an Islamist-led panel for investing too much power in the president.
The Swiss government has blocked over $1 billion linked to rulers in four Arab Spring nations.
Former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic denied committing war crimes as he began his defense at The Hague.
Seven Chinese warships were spotted in the waters off a southern island in Japan.
Mexico filed its fourth complaint against China with the World Trade Organization, claiming China gives itself tax breaks and other deals.
The head of Argentina’s navy has been replaced following the seizure in West Africa of a naval training ship and its 300-man crew amid a debt dispute.
A British computer hacker accused by the United States of breaking into military systems will not be extradited to the U.S.
Cuba announced it is removing the need for its citizens to obtain exit permits before traveling abroad.
Commentary of the Day
Lindsay Gifford looks at the history of sectarian divides in Syria.
Husain Haqqani argues for the West to continue engagement with groups that oppose the Taliban.
Manik Suri explains why the administration’s policy towards India has made America stronger.
Heather Hurlburt examines the legacy of deterrence theory fifty years after the Cuban Missile Crisis.
