Climate Security: Time for Politicians to Catch up with Security Professionals
In his State of the Union address this week, President Obama stressed the importance of making progress toward a sustainable energy future – drawing on concerns about climate change and competitiveness as well as the views of senior military personnel who have called for investment in greener energy. He said, “the good news is we can make meaningful progress on this issue while driving strong economic growth. I urge this Congress to get together, pursue a bipartisan, market-based solution to climate change, like the one John McCain and Joe Lieberman worked on together a few years ago.” On the heels of the speech there will also be a large rally in Washington DC this Sunday to call attention to the issue.
While our political leaders have failed to adequately address energy sustainability and climate change, our national security professionals have long been calling for action. They point to a range of concerns, from geopolitical dependence on unstable regimes to fears of climate refugee crises to the vulnerability of military supply lines. Their bottom line is the twin challenges of climate change and long term energy insecurity are serious threats to U.S. national security that deserve responses now. It is time for our politics to catch up.
Accelerating and multiplying threats. The Quadrennial Defense Review of the Department of Defense’s strategy and priorities states, “While climate change alone does not cause conflict, it may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and militaries around the world.” A seminal report on the issue of climate security from the military think tank the Center for Naval Analyses finds, “Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security… Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world.” The report adds, “Unlike most conventional security threats that involve a single entity acting in specific ways and points in time, climate change has the potential to result in multiple chronic conditions, occurring globally within the same time frame. Economic and environmental conditions in already fragile areas will further erode as food production declines, diseases increase, clean water becomes increasingly scarce, and large populations move in search of resources. Weakened and failing governments, with an already thin margin for survival, foster the conditions for internal conflicts, extremism, and movement toward increased authoritarianism and radical ideologies.” [QDR, February 2010. CNA, 2007]
Dependence on unstable regimes. Thirty three retired generals and admirals warn: “America’s billion-dollar-a-day dependence on oil makes us vulnerable to unstable and unfriendly regimes. A substantial amount of that oil money ends up in the hands of terrorists. Consequently, our military is forced to operate in hostile territory, and our troops are attacked by terrorists funded by U.S. oil dollars, while rogue regimes profit off of our dependence. As long as the American public is beholden to global energy prices, we will be at the mercy of these rogue regimes. Taking control of our energy future means preventing future conflicts around the world and protecting Americans here at home.” [Letter from 33 retired Generals and Admirals, 4/29/10]
Long, vulnerable supply lines for our military. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Operational Energy Plans and Programs Sharon Burke explains the vulnerability of the long and complicated supply lines associated with the military’s high demand for energy, “one of the things we’re really focused on is reducing demand, [which is] reducing our consumption, because no matter what kind of energy we’re using, the amount of energy we’re using causes us problems in practice – particularly in the kinds of fights we’re fighting today where so much of our logistics train is in the battlefield.” [Sharon Burke, 10/18/10]
Increased tensions even in stable parts of the world. The Center for Naval Analyses report explains, “The U.S. and Europe may experience mounting pressure to accept large numbers of immigrant and refugee populations as drought increases and food production declines in Latin America and Africa. Extreme weather events and natural disasters, as the U.S. experienced with Hurricane Katrina, may lead to increased missions for a number of U.S. agencies, including state and local governments, the Department of Homeland Security, and our already stretched military, including our Guard and Reserve forces.” [Center for Naval Analyses, 4/07]
Staying competitive. Retired Air Force General Chuck Wald warns, “We need to remain competitive in the world as we move toward a future of green, sustainable energy. That will keep our debt from growing. Importing less oil means fewer foreign policy impacts and more assured energy for what we need. The biggest motivation to do it is national security… the world is moving on. In energy, there’s a need to compete economically. Everything’s driving to clean energy in a big way. The technology is there, but you need a market signal… And we can get there through a combination of innovation, policy, and regulation. We need a friendly environment for businesses to invest.” [Chuck Wald, CNA, 7/10]
What We’re Reading
The Associated Press discovered a nine-page document from al Qaeda in the Maghreb that spells out the terror network’s strategy for conquering northern Mali and reflects internal discord.
South Korea staged large military drills and disclosed a new cruise missile capable of hitting any target in North Korea, as Pyongyang talked up its intentions to build intercontinental ballistic missiles tipped with nuclear warheads.
Iran recently sought to acquire tens of thousands of highly specialized magnets used in centrifuge machines, according to experts and diplomats.
Burmese police fired military-issue white phosphorus grenades to disperse protesters at a controversial copper mine, injuring and burning scores of demonstrators.
A heavily armed militia attacked tribesmen during a cattle drive in South Sudan, leaving behind dozens of dead and possibly kidnapping hundreds of others.
The party that ended apartheid has begun to lose its appeal among black South Africans, many of whom have grown frustrated waiting for the “better life for all” promised when the African National Congress won historic multiracial elections 18 years ago.
Spanish authorities, working with the European Union’s law enforcement agency, Europol, arrested 11 people from Russia, Georgia and Ukraine, alleging a complex cybercrime network spreading ransomware designed to extort money.
The recession across the economy of the 17 European Union countries that use the euro deepened in the last three months of 2012 as Germany faltered in the face of anemic region-wide demand.
At least seven Colombian soldiers were killed and another five injured in clashes with FARC guerrillas during peace talks.
Mexican officials arrested six men on suspicion of raping a group of Spanish women who were vacationing this month near Acapulco.
Commentary of the Day
Walter Pincus dissects the challenges faced both domestically and abroad in reducing the nuclear weapon stockpile.
Keith Richburg explores the growing tensions between China and North Korea
Ray Takeyh writes time is still on the side of the United States when it comes to Iran.
