Biden’s Asia Trip: Opportunity to Mitigate Risk of Conflict

This week, Vice President Joe Biden travels to Japan, China and South Korea. The trip comes just one week after Beijing declared what is known as an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, requiring foreign aircraft – both civilian and military – to report their flight plans with Beijing and remain in contact while inside the zone. While commentators point out there is nothing inherently alarming about an ADIZ – which other countries operate as well, including the U.S. –  Beijing’s move has elicited concern in Washington and in the region because it overlaps with  islands contested by China and Japan that have been the focal point of increasing tensions between the two countries. As analysts and official statements from  countries in the region have recognized, the main risk of China’s move is increased chance for miscalculation or error in the airspace above the high-tension East China Sea. The need to mitigate these risks underscores the need for greater  security cooperation between Washington and Beijing so that both sides can better understand one another’s intentions, build crises management mechanisms to prevent accidental conflict, and build a 21^st century relationship that includes greater strategic trust.

What is China’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and why does it matter?

A new step in China’s disputes with its neighbors: First, it is important to underscore what the ADIZ is not. As James Fallows of The Atlantic clarifies, “Many news stories have presented the ADIZ as if it were comparable to a no-fly zone, or an extension of territorial sovereignty. It’s not quite that.” Nonetheless, the move is significant. CNN reports, China “declared that aircraft in the area must report their flight plans to China, maintain two-way radio and clearly mark their nationalities on the aircraft…This space included a swath of the East China Sea, including a disputed island chain known as Daioyu in China and Senkaku in Japan. China vowed to ‘adopt defensive emergency measures to respond to aircraft that do not cooperate in the identification or refuse to follow the instructions.’” [James Fallows, 11/26/12. CNN, 11/27/13]

Risk of miscalculation and accidental conflict: China and Japan’s economic interdependence makes intentional conflict very improbable. However,  discussing China’s air defense identification zone, David Finkelstein, vice president of the Center for Naval Analyses, explains, “The situation between China and Japan is serious. If a tit-for-tat dynamic between Beijing and Tokyo becomes the operative way of conducting business, things could get worse. There are domestic factors at play in both countries… that are difficult to fully understand; especially in the case of China. What makes this situation so fraught with peril is the possibility of miscalculation.”

The risk of error or miscalculation is accentuated by the fact that China, the United States, Japan and South Korea routinely operate their military aircraft within the area now within the Chinese air defense zone. [David Finkelstein, 11/29/13]

International leaders respond calling for restraint, concern about increased chance for miscalculation: 

United States Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel: “We view this development as a destabilizing attempt to alter the status quo in the region. This unilateral action increases the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculations…This announcement by the People’s Republic of China will not in any way change how the United States conducts military operations in the region.” [Chuck Hagel, 11/23/13]

Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs: “The Government of Japan expresses deep concern about China’s establishment of such zone and obliging its own rules within the zone, which are profoundly dangerous acts that unilaterally change the status quo in the East China Sea, escalating the situation, and that may cause unintended consequences in the East China Sea.” [Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, 11/24/13]

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop: “It’s been long-standing Australian policy to oppose any unilateral action by any side that could increase the tensions in this contested territorial zone, and so we’re joining with other countries in expressing our concern, particularly as China’s announcement of this Air Defence Identification Zone was made without warning and without consultation.” [Julie Bishop, 11/28/13]

European Union High Representative Catherine Ashton: “The EU is concerned to learn of China’s decision to establish an ‘East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone’…This development heightens the risk of escalation and contributes to raising tensions in the region. The EU calls on all sides to exercise caution and restraint.” [Catherine Ashton, 11/28/13]

China’s ADIZ underscores the need for more security cooperation between the United States and China to manage crises and understand intentions. While in Beijing, Vice President Biden has the opportunity to press the Chinese on the need for enhanced cooperation to mitigate the risks of crisis:

Need to better understand China’s intentions: James Fallows of The Atlantic explains that the intentions of the Chinese leadership is not entirely clear, “As for the immediate reasons for this move, no one outside the central leadership can say with any certainty, and perhaps not even anyone there. The lines of authority and communication between civilian and military officials in China are murky in the best of circumstances.” East Asian specialist Robert Kelly outlines four potential hypotheses about why China declared its ADIZ, including the possibility that the main objective was “for domestic legitimacy purposes:” “CCP ideology since Tiananmen is nationalism, not communism. And Japan is the great foreign enemy in that narrative…So now the CCP is stuck; they have to be tough on Japan – even if they don’t want to be – because their citizens demand it.” [James Fallows, 11/26/12. Robert Kelly, 11/29/13]

Better mil-to-mil cooperation to enhance crisis management: Margaret K. Lewis, Associate Professor at Seton Hall Law School, explains that Beijing’s air defense identification zone highlights the need for greater crisis management mechanisms between China and the U.S.: “concrete measures are needed both to forestall conflicts and to create channels to promptly address confrontations before they balloon into crises. Given persisting legal ambiguities about military activities at sea, as well as the increasing frequency of encounters due to assertive U.S. maneuvers and growing Chinese military might, the two countries should take the lead in establishing specific, practical ‘rules of the road’ for use when their military forces encounter each other to lessen the chance of future incidents.” [Margaret K. Lewis, 12/2/13]