SITUATION OVERVIEW

North Korea is a police state led by Kim Jong-Il. It is an isolated, impoverished state that maintains order through fear and totalitarianism. North Korea is the world's leading exporter of short-range ballistic missiles. Previous buyers of its missile systems include Iran, Pakistan, Syria, Egypt, and Yemen. It obtains hard currency through small arms sales, drug trade, and counterfeiting of U.S. currency. The U.S. currently has approximately 30,000 troops deployed in South Korea and is committed to defending both South Korea and Japan from North Korean aggression.

U.S. intelligence reportedly believes that North Korea possesses several nuclear weapons; the exact estimate is classified. No conclusive evidence exists that North Korea can make a weapon that will fit on a ballistic missile, but Pyongyang's program produces enough plutonium for approximately one additional nuclear weapon every year. North Korea cannot strike targets in the United States with ballistic missiles, and it may be a decade before it can do so but it does have a large arsenal of short-range (up to 800 miles) missiles that can reach Korea, Japan and key U.S. allies in Asia.

THE BUSH RECORD

Under President Bush significant ground has been lost. When he took office, North Korea was adhering to a negotiated freeze on plutonium and may have possessed enough plutonium for one nuclear device. Since then, North Korea may have more than quadrupled its stock of weapons-grade plutonium and breached all previous constraints on its program. Under the Bush administration, North Korea has expelled international nuclear inspectors, withdrawn from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and produced enough new weapons-grade plutonium for a number of nuclear weapons.

President Bush and Congress have largely neglected the issue of North Korea's nuclear program, presiding over a significant increase in the threat to the United States and its allies. The administration has rejected any effort to negotiate a freeze and instead insisted upon immediate disarmament. The U.S. effort to create a multilateral negotiating group, known as the six party talks, has been a total failure. These nations have met only five times over four years and produced no significant results, and North Korea is now boycotting the discussions. The United States is seen by states in the region, including China and South Korea, as contributing to the standoff by having recently imposed increased measures to deter North Korean counterfeiting operations, a secondary but important concern.

POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS

Efforts must be made to convince North Korea to accept a freeze on its nuclear program and begin a process that will eventually lead it to relinquish its nuclear arsenal. The U.S. should identify positive steps it would take to convince North Korea to freeze its nuclear production and then engage in talks to pursue full disarmament. Such a good-faith effort would help repair the damage done to U.S.-South Korean relations and encourage China to put more pressure on North Korea to cooperate. If North Korea rejects a reasonable offer to freeze and eliminate its program, then the U.S. must work to reinforce its deterrent against North Korea and make clear that any attempt to act militarily against the U.S. or its allies, or to sell nuclear weapons or technology to others, would engender a swift and severe response from the United States.

TALKING POINTS

Critiques

• Under this President and Congress, North Korea quadrupled its nuclear arsenal and likely has as many as ten nuclear weapons.
• President Bush claimed he would not tolerate a nuclear North Korea, but he has done worse than that: he ignored the threat of North Korea as it expanded its nuclear arsenal.
• North Korea's missile program continues to advance and the Bush administration has demonstrated no viable response. Attempts to develop a missile defense apparatus have been ineffectual, and the administration has left America vulnerable to North Korean threats.

Recommendations

• The U.S. cannot allow North Korea to continue building nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them to the United States. Another two years of the same flawed policy will only exacerbate the nuclear threat.
• In the longer term North Korea must be convinced to abandon its nuclear weapons. As a first step we must convince North Korea to freeze its ongoing nuclear weapon production.
• If and when a freeze occurs, direct negotiations must occur to convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons in exchange for a new relationship with the United States and the outside world.
• Should North Korea reject these efforts, the United States must make clear than any attempt to act militarily against the U.S. or our allies would be considered an act of war and engender a swift and severe response.