9/2/08

Iraq is entering a pivotal period. With little political reconciliation between Sunnis and Shia since the surge began a year and a half ago, the U.S. has now begun to transfer authority over the predominately Sunni Anbar province to the Shia-dominated Iraqi government. The Iraqi government is also set to take responsibility for 54,000 members of the Sunni Sons of Iraq (SOI). Some are set to be integrated into the Iraqi national security forces others will be bought off or given government jobs. The formation of the SOI was critical factor leading to the decline in violence and the collapse of Al Qaeda in Iraq. Made up of more than 100,000 Sunnis – many of whom were former Sunni insurgents who had attacked and killed Americans – the SOI were backed and funded by the U.S. government. Yet the Shia-dominated Iraqi government led by Prime Minister Maliki has viewed the SOI with great suspicion and contempt and to this point has resisted integrating them into the Iraqi security forces. Alienating the SOI has the potential to unleash a new round of violence. Furthermore, negotiations between the U.S. and Iraqi government are now in doubt, as Prime Minister Maliki has reshuffled his negotiating team. While conservatives have prematurely declared victory in Iraq, progressives have consistently warned that political reconciliation and the establishment of the Iraqi government will be the hard part.

In once-volatile Anbar province, uncertainty reigns in the wake of the U.S. handover of security control to the Iraqi government.  Though both the Bush Administration and the Iraqi government welcomed the historic event, the transition raised doubts “about the future of a linchpin in the effort to secure Anbar and the rest of Iraq: the Awakening movement, a 100,000-person group of former Sunni insurgents who now cooperate with U.S. troops.” Already, the Shi’a-dominated government has stepped up a campaign “to arrest leaders of the Awakening and dismantle parts of the program.”  Even as American and Iraqi officials announced plans to integrate 54,000 members of the Awakening movement into the security forces, some leaders expressed a fear that “the transfer would give the Iraqi government further opportunity to drive out Awakening leaders whom the government considered active or former insurgents.”  [Washington Post, 9/02/08. NY Times, 9/02/08]

The future status of the Awakening movement is a “gathering storm on Iraq’s horizon.”  According to Iraq experts Colin Kahl and Shawn Brimley, the Iraqi government’s treatment of the SOI is a potential tinderbox, which threatens to send the country spiraling toward renewed instability.  Despite the fact that “much of Iraq's dramatic security progress can be traced” to decisions made by these Sunni tribesmen, the Iraqi government has not only “slow-rolled” their integration into Iraq’s security forces, but they appear to be cracking down on them as well.  “It is obvious where this road might end. The last time tens of thousands of armed Sunni men were humiliated in Iraq -- by disbanding the Baath Party and Iraqi army in May 2003 -- an insurgency began, costing thousands of U.S. lives and throwing Iraq into chaos. Yet Maliki and his advisors risk provoking Iraq's Sunni community into another round of violence.” [LA Times, 8/26/08]

Failure to resolve the status of the Sons of Iraq highlights Iraq’s instability, despite conservative claims of success.  In August, John McCain claimed that victory in Iraq “is finally in sight,” but as the Awakening situation demonstrates, political reconciliation, so integral to the country’s stability, has languished.  Iraqi politicians have been unable to translate security improvements into progress on several key political issues, including the oil law, provincial elections, and the status of the city Kirkuk.  Mullah Shahab al Aafi, a former leader of insurgents in Diyala province, commanding 24,000 Sons of Iraq, commented on the plight of the Awakening movement to warn of the consequences of failure to address Iraq’s festering political divisions: “If they disband us now, I will tell you that history will show we will go back to zero.” [Senator John McCain, 8/18/08.  NSN, 8/21/08. McClatchy, 8/20/08]

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s decision to re-shuffle his negotiating team places U.S. - Iraq security agreement talks in doubt.  In a sign of the Iraqi government’s dysfunctionality, “at the ‘make-or-break’ stage of talks with the U.S. on the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has swept aside his negotiating team and replaced it with three of his closest aides, a reshuffle that some Iraqi officials warn risks sabotaging the agreement.”  “Mithal Alusi, an independent Sunni lawmaker who has advised Maliki in the past, accused the prime minister of trying to wreck the talks. ‘Why does he have to change the leaders of the negotiating team, and now? Why? We had reached the last part. Why does he have to change it?’ Alusi asked. ‘He doesn't want it.’” [LA Times, 8/31/08]

Quick Hits

Three Afghan children have been killed in coalition artillery strike; the deaths come at a sensitive time for U.S.-Afghan relations after the Afghan government stated that a deadly air-strike last week killed 90 Afghans and prompted the Karzai government to demand a review of the status of US-ISAF presence in the country.  

Pakistani officials admit that Al Qaeda has had free movement in and out of the country.

Japanese Prime Minister Fakuda steps down, causing chaos in Japan’s ruling party, and opening the door for an election of a new party leader on September 22.

EU members meet in Bucharest to weigh options for responding to Russian incursions into Georgia; member states decide against sanctions after indications from Moscow that troop pullback is pending, but talks over partnership-agreement are suspended, drawing Russian criticism.

Former Senator Bob Kerrey of Nebraska has an op-ed arguing that John McCain’s military experience does not by itself qualify him to be President.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is set to make a historic visit to Libya.

State of emergency declared in Thailand amidst escalating unrest which injured dozens and claimed one life.  

Hurricane Gustav hits the Gulf Coast, but impact is minimal; for Cuba, Gustav was the worst storm they’ve seen in 50 years. Meanwhile, Hurricane Hanna could be on its way to South Carolina and Georgia.