8/25/08

Pakistan’s fragile, democratically-elected coalition government drew closer to collapse today, as one of the main parties withdrew. As Pakistan also experienced one of the worst suicide attacks in its history, the coalition was challenged to reject a Taliban ceasefire offer and instead ban the group – a possible sign of progress against terror but a certain harbinger of more violence. The dangerous instability wracking Pakistan has some of its roots in the Bush administration’s personality-based policy of giving former President Musharraf a blank check even as he lost popularity with his people, the fight against the Taliban stalemated, and the country’s political institutions collapsed.

Pakistan’s governing coalition is teetering on the verge of collapse with the announcement by Nawaz Sharif that his party is withdrawing from the coalition government. Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League announced today that he will leave the governing coalition headed by the Pakistan People’s Party, which is led by Benazir Bhutto’s widower Asif Al Zardari. The two parties disagree on the restoration of the judges ousted by Pervez Musharraf last year, which became a critical issue in undermining Musharraf’s hold on power. They also disagree on the timing of the new presidential elections to succeed Musharraf. The Muslim League wants the judges reinstated immediately and the Presidential elections to replace Musharraf pushed back past September 6th so that it can better prepare for the election, while the People’s Party has supported faster elections and been less supportive of the reinstatement of the judges. [Wall Street Journal, 8/25/08. AP, 8/25/08]

Pakistan has banned the Taliban after it took credit for one of the worst suicide bombings in the nation’s history, which targeted sensitive military installations and left 67 dead. “The ban imposed by the fragile governing coalition comes just a week after the ouster of Pervez Musharraf, a key U.S. ally whose departure has prompted concern that the nuclear-armed country is too unstable to beat back extremists. Anyone caught aiding the Taliban in Pakistan — which will have its bank accounts and assets frozen — faces up to 10 years in prison. The Interior Ministry announced the ban 24 hours after rejecting a Taliban cease-fire offer in Bajur tribal region, a rumored hiding place for Osama bin Laden, where an army offensive has reportedly killed hundreds in recent weeks.” [AP, 8/25/08]

Quick Hits

Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili has pledged to rebuild the country’s army and to continue to pursue unification with the separatist provinces of South Ossetia and Abkazia. A Georgian train stuck a mine and erupted in an enormous fireball; no one was hurt, but fears arise of deliberate Russian sabotage of Georgian infrastructure during its so-called retreat. Meanwhile, a U.S. warship carrying aid has arrived in the Georgian port of Batumi.

A NY Times report takes a closer look at how the CIA worked to unravel A.Q. Khan’s nuclear network.

Following the Russia-Georgia conflict, a U.S.-Russian nuclear cooperation agreement has stalled.

Indian-administered Kashmir is under an indefinite curfew, though protests by the Muslim majority continue, particularly following the arrests of two of the most prominent Muslim separatist leaders.

Afghan president Hamid Karzai has denounced Friday’s coalition airstrike that may have killed up to 95 civilians, promising steps to prevent such tragedies in the future and firing two senior military officers; the attack produced one of the highest civilian casualty totals in the seven years of fighting in Afghanistan.

Israel released 200 Palestinian prisoners as a goodwill gesture to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

A suicide bombing in Iraq, at a party hosted by one of the local leaders of the Awakening movement, killed 25 people.

Iraq continues to face a crisis of displaced persons, as very few refugees have returned to their homes and entire neighborhoods have forcibly developed new ethnicities; another refugee crisis is brewing in Chad, where floods have forced 10,000 from their homes.

Francis Fukuyama argues in the Washington Post that despite recent events democracies still have inherent advantages over autocracies.

In Somalia, the Islamic courts movement has seized the third-largest city of Kismayo, killing approximately 70 and causing thousands to flee. The Islamic movement already controls the capital of Mogadishu.