This weekend Iraq’s leaders again failed to agree on a new provincial elections law, meaning that if an agreement is not reached in the next few days, the elections will likely be postponed to next year. These elections are crucial for bringing the Sunni groups, who have worked with the United States against Al Qaeda in Iraq, into the national government. Implementing the law, which was meant to improve relations with Sunnis, is also exacerbating tensions between Kurds and Arabs over the control of oil-rich Kirkuk. Rather than simply saying that we have “succeeded” as John McCain has done, we must recognize that the situation remains incredibly fragile and complicated and that the lack of political progress could plunge the country back into higher levels of violence.

Iraq talks on provincial elections continue to stall. Over the weekend, Iraq’s political leaders held extensive negotiations over a law to administer provincial council elections but once again failed to reach an agreement. The breakdown of the talks centered on how to treat the oil rich and ethnically diverse city of Kirkuk. The Kurds continue to insist Kirkuk be a part of the Kurdish Autonomous Region while Sunni Arabs and Turkmen wish the city to come under the central authority in Baghdad. [NY Times, 8/4/08]

The unsuccessful negotiations are exacerbating a politically tenuous situation in Kirkuk. Meanwhile, a raucous protest of more than 4,000 Arabs occurred on Sunday in the Northern Iraqi city of Hawija. The protesters railed against Kurdish insistence that Kirkuk be incorporated into their region, holding signs which read “Kirkuk is an Iraqi province and runs in the blood of all Arabs” and “No to annexation of Kirkuk and yes to peaceful coexistence.” Last Monday a suicide bomb killed 22 during a different protest in Kirkuk. These recent events have American officials worried that the issue of provincial electiosn could lead to a resurgence of sectarian violence. [AP, 8/3/08; AFP, 8/4/08]

Without real political compromises there will be no long-term stability in Iraq. While key security indicators have improved markedly over the past year, we cannot declare “victory” in Iraq without political solutions. The lack of resolution of the Kirkuk issue, coupled with the delay of the crucial provincial elections law, could threaten the country’s fragile peace. It is a reminder that the reduction in violence we have seen recently is heavily predicated on political success. To date, Iraqi leaders’ failure to decide the future of Kirkuk “has already raised tensions and could further shred Iraq’s fragile social fabric — and unleash more bloodshed.” [NY Times, 8/4/08]

Quick Hits

At least sixteen police officers were killed in Xinjiang, a predominantly Muslim border province with a strong separatist movement in western China. China has placed Beijing on the highest security alert for the Olympic Games.

Iran flouted the two-week deadline on agreeing to hold international talks on its nuclear program, instead reverting to discussions with Syria over the impasse.

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn died on Sunday at 89. Solzhenitsyn, a Nobel Prize-winning author, engaged in “literary struggle” with the Soviet Union, and delivered “the greatest and most powerful single indictment of a political regime ever to be leveled in modern times.” In recent years Solzhenitsyn had developed a relationship with Vladimir Putin, whom he admired for his efforts to restore the Russian State.

The New York Times profiles the “tenacity” of the continued Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, which has “has turned Afghanistan into a deadlier battlefield than Iraq.”

Senator Barack Obama is set to unveil more details on his energy plan today at a speech in Lansing, Michigan, while Senator John McCain is speaking on veterans issues today at the Sturgis Rally 2008, a veteran’s event.

USA Today chronicles Staff Sgt. Kevin Dunne's post-Iraq struggle with PTSD.

The LA Times has a piece on the legitimacy of Salim Ahmed Hamdan’s military trial at Guantanamo Bay as his case goes to the jury today.

Almost 150 people were killed in a stampede at a temple in India, after rumors of a landslide caused panic among festival-attendees.