12.03.2007

Washington, DC

Key findings of a new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran were made public today, concluding that Iran halted nuclear weapons development programs. Two experts weigh in on these developments.

Rand Beers, president of the National Security Network:

“The new NIE throws cold water on the efforts of those urging military confrontation with Iran. In fact, the NIE concludes that Iran hasn't taken any actions with their nuclear arsenal since 2003 and therefore the latest dust up is unnecessarily alarmist. The nation's 16 intelligence agencies judge that Iran is years away from nuclear weapons. This report demonstrates a clear opening for US policy in terms of engaging on mutual interests with Iran throughout the Middle East. Anything short of doing this will be a missed opportunity. Simply put, we have an imminent need for a real dialogue with Iran, not a military confrontation.”

Beers can be reached for comment at 202-289-7211.

Jon Wolfsthal, senior fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies:

This is a blockbuster development and requires a wholesale re-evaluation of US policy.  This NIE suggests that outside pressure and scrutiny has turned off Iran's nuclear weapons program.  This is the piece of evidence that was missed in the case of Iraq, where the Bush administration was convinced that Iraq's efforts were continuing despite
sanctions. 

The fact that Iran has halted its nuclear weapons program provides an opening for the United States and its allies to engage Iran directly. Iran remains in violation of UN resolutions to suspend its enrichment program, however, and international efforts must now look to pursuing an engagement strategy that could avert a worsening of relations.

Wolfsthal can be reached for comment at 202-741-3949.