Because of the Bush Administration’s ill-advised policies in Iraq, the country now faces a severe refugee crisis. More than four million Iraqis have been displaced, with two million fleeing to neighboring countries and two million internally displaced. Not only has this caused a humanitarian disaster, but the crisis threatens the stability of the entire region. Jordan and Syria are not capable of handling the massive influx of refugees, which has put a tremendous strain on these countries’ public services, led to new societal fissures, and has the potential to foster greater extremism in the region.

Unfortunately, the Administration’s response has been wholly inadequate. Just over 1,000 Iraqis have been allowed into the United States this year and the U.S. has spent only $200 million in 2007 on humanitarian aid for Iraqis. These are meager contributions that do not even begin to address the scale of the problem.

The United States has an obligation to significantly expand the number of Iraqi refugees we absorb into this country and substantially increase the humanitarian aid funding. The U.S. must also engage with Jordan, Syria other regional players and the broader international community to develop a comprehensive plan to address the refugee crisis. We can lead this effort, but only if we first lead by example and do our part.

Note: This paper focuses primarily on refugees. NSN will release an additional paper discussing Internally Displaced Persons.

Iraq is Facing a Grave Refugee Crisis

According to the UN High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR) as of August 2007 more than 4.2 million Iraqis had been displaced. “An estimated 4.2 million Iraqis have been uprooted from their homes, with the monthly rate of displacement climbing to over 60,000 people compared to 50,000 previously, according to UNHCR and the Iraqi Red Crescent. Displacement is rising as Iraqis are finding it harder to get access to social services inside Iraq and many Iraqis are choosing to leave ethnically mixed areas before they are forced to do so.” [UNHCR, 8/28/07]

As a result of sectarian violence the number of internally displaced persons (IDP) has risen dramatically, reaching 2 million people. “More than 2 million Iraqis are displaced inside Iraq, with over 1 million displaced since the February 2006 Samarra bombings. While most of the security incidents happen in the center and south of the country, the displaced are not confined to these regions. In the north, there are more than 780,000 displaced Iraqis, over 650,000 in the center of the country, and 790,000 in the south. Many are barely surviving in makeshift camps, inaccessible to aid workers for security reasons.” [UNHCR, 8/28/07. McClatchy, 9/9/07]

The Refugee Crisis Could Further Destabilize the Entire Region

More than one million Iraqi refugees have fled to Syria, putting an extraordinary burden on a poor country of 20 million people. 2,000 refugees from Iraq arrive at the Syrian border everyday, and Iraqi refugees residing in Syria comprise roughly 8% of that country’s population, a huge drain on the local economy. Housing prices in parts of Damascus have more than doubled in the last two years because of increased demand. According to the Syrian government, since 2005, demand for bread in Damascus has risen by 35%, demand for electricity is up 27%, and demand for water is up 20%. Syrian schools have taken in 75,000 new Iraqi students, and many class sizes in Damascus have doubled. “The added pressures the Iraqis are putting on the existing system are pushing it to its limits at the moment,” said Sybella Wilkes, UNHCR spokesperson in Damascus. [UNHCR 9/21/07. CSIS, 09/07. IRIN, 6/28/07]

Jordan, a country of only 6 million, has accepted between 500,000 and 750,000 making up roughly 10% of the population. The Jordanian Government has stated that the rapid influx of displaced people has put a strain of up to “$1 billion a year in basic services.” The U.S. government is giving Jordan an additional $78 million in assistance to address these problems, but this is not nearly enough. [Washington Post, 7/27/07. AP, 9/16/07]

Jordan is a crucial American ally in the region, but the refugee crisis could have grave consequences for its stability. “When combined with the 60 percent of Jordanians of Palestinian origin, the ruling Hashemites and their East Bank Jordanian allies have become an even smaller minority in their own country. Jordan has always been more homogenous than Syria, but the influx of hundreds of thousands of Shi’a Arabs has put an end to that. Jordan’s refugee problem is compounded by a crisis brewing on its western border. With Hamas’ rise in the Palestinian territories, and the Fatah-led government’s determination to squelch it, instability there leaches into Jordan’s majority Palestinian community. The peril increases as U.S. policymakers and others push Jordan to deepen connections to the West Bank as a way of improving conditions in Palestine and supporting President Mahmoud Abbas. It may all work out well, but the danger is that Jordan falls prey to the crises on its eastern and western borders.” [CSIS, 9/07]

The refugee crisis is also likely to lead to more terrorism and Islamic extremism. “Past experience has shown that large concentrations of refugees incubate irredentist violence and nourish jihadism. Coping with these flows will require the coordinated efforts of the UN, wealthy donor countries, and nongovernmental organizations…The presence of large numbers of Iraqi refugees in Jordan provides useful cover for jihadis looking to operate in that country. Moreover, the so called ratlines that bring foreign fighters into Iraq can support the reverse flow of terrorists to other regional cities or onward to western Europe.” [Council on Foreign Relations, 9/07]

The Bush Administration Has Not Done Nearly Enough to Address the Crisis: It Is Time to Do More

The United States must significantly expand the number of Iraqi refugees that it accepts into this country. Despite the two million Iraqis, who have fled the country, the Bush Administration has let in just over 1,000 this year. Although the State Department had originally said it hoped to resettle 7,000 Iraqis in the U.S. by the end of September, it scaled down that target to 2,000 and is unlikely to meet even that goal. Just 1,135 Iraqi refugees had made it into the country as of the second to last week of September. [LA Times, 9/22/07]

The United States must dramatically expand humanitarian aid to Iraqi refugees and IDPs. In 2007 the United States provided $200 million in humanitarian aid to Iraqis both inside Iraq and in neighboring countries. The United States also contributed $17 million to the UNHCR Iraq Supplementary Program and $39 million to a UNHCR/UNICEF program aimed at enrolling more Iraqi children in Jordanian and Syrian schools. These amounts combined represent less than what we spend in one day in Iraq. We have the capacity to significantly expand this effort and do a great deal of good for a relatively low cost. [U.S. Department of State, 9/20/07. UNHCR, 7/10/07]

The U.S. must engage diplomatically with Jordan, Syria, other Arab allies, and sympathetic nations around the world to alleviate the crisis. We must work with Syria and Jordan and help them to more effectively absorb refugees. We must also coordinate with other nations, especially those in the region, to take in more refugees and resettle some of those in Jordan and Syria. The wealthy donor nations of the world should also be asked to take in refugees and provide more humanitarian aid. A coordinated plan can be developed that greatly improves the lives of Iraqi refugees and minimizes the destabilizing effect on the region. However, the United States will have to lead by example and until it steps up to the plate with a real financial commitment and a much greater willingness to accept refugees, others will not follow.