MEASURING THE BENCHMARKS

By Ilan Goldenberg

This report is the latest in a weekly series to offer an assessment of the Supplemental benchmarks and measure whether any real progress is being made in Iraq.

Establishing the Process, Infrastructure and Timeline for Provincial Elections

“This election is also important for America. Our nation has always been more secure when freedom is on the march. As hope and freedom spread, the appeal of terror and hate will fade.” —  President Bush Speaking after the Iraqi provincial elections in 2005, 1/29/05

• Enacting and implementing legislation establishing an Independent High Electoral Commission, provincial elections law, provincial council authorities, and a date for provincial elections

Holding new provincial elections is essential to bringing Sunnis back into the political fold.  Because they boycotted the previous elections in 2005, Sunnis are currently are badly underrepresented in the local governments.  As a result, they do not receive access to the same basic services as Shi’a.  Unfortunately, there has been little progress to date on establishing the mechanisms necessary to hold new elections.  Even if progress was made, the unstable security situation and displacement of a large portion of the Iraqi population would make it extraordinarily difficult to hold fair elections.

Progress Toward Holding Provincial Elections

New provincial elections are necessary to increase Sunni representation in the government.  The Sunnis boycotted provincial election. As a result, they are underrepresented in the local governments, which coordinate with national agencies to provide gasoline, health, education, sanitation, security and other local services.  Without political influence, local Sunnis can’t get basic services, are discriminated against by the Shi’a, and are alienated by the government.  The situation is especially severe in Baghdad, where 40% of the population is Sunni, but only one of the 51 members of the local provincial council is Sunni.  [LA Times, 3/11/07]

There are four key milestones that need to be reached in order to facilitate provincial elections.  To date, only one of them has been achieved.  Earlier this year, the Iraqi government passed legislation to form the Independent High Electoral Commission and later appointed nine Commissioners. However, there is still no clear mandate on what this commission is supposed to do because the law outlining the responsibilities has not been passed.  The White House also reported that Iraqis have not made sufficient progress in setting up the provincial council authorities. These authorities would be responsible for establishing a date for--  and overseeing--new elections. However, there has been no progress, despite the fact that the elections were supposed to occur this year.  [White House Initial Benchmark Assessment, 7/12/07]

Little progress has been made on the law that would define the role of provincial governments.  There has been little progress on passing the Provincial Powers Law that defines the authorities and structures of local governments.  The law has been read twice in the Council of Representatives, but changes are being considered in respect to the powers of the governor and the reach of the central government at the local level. [White House Initial Benchmark Assessment, 7/12/07]

Prime Minister Maliki has said that provincial Iraqi elections will be held in 2007.  However, there is little reason to believe that he is capable or willing to follow through. Maliki affirmed in early July that the government is "…determined to hold the provincial elections this year." However, he gave no date for the elections.  To date, Maliki’s leadership style and alliances have been focused almost exclusively on the Shi’a, despite the fact that the law is designed to ensure engagement with the Sunni community.  It is unlikely that he would make a significant change and start aggressively supporting a measure that will give the Sunnis more power.  [NPR, 7/01/07]

Structural Problems with Holding Elections

The overall level of violence in Iraq will make holding valid provincial elections extremely difficult.  The level of violence in Iraq has remained relatively constant.  While sectarian violence in Baghdad has decreased, insurgents and extremists have simply moved operations to Diyala, Ninewa and the outlying areas of Baghdad Province. It will be difficult to hold fair local elections across the country without improving security.  [Pentagon, 6/07]

The refugee crisis has complicated the process of holding meaningful provincial elections. Over 4 million Iraqis have been displaced since April 2003.  Maliki has asked the Independent Electoral Commission to find a way to make sure Iraqis can vote even if they have left the country or have moved to another part of the country.  About half are living as refugees in neighboring countries, and the others have moved to communities that share their religious or sectarian background.  All of this movement makes it extraordinarily difficult to assemble accurate voter rolls.  [CAP 6/25/07 , Reuters, 7/01/07]