Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United States, and the Way out of Yemen
Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United States, and the Way out of Yemen
April 22, 2015
Saudi Arabia announced yesterday that it was transitioning from a military to a political emphasis in its intervention in Yemen, ending Operation Decisive Storm and beginning a new phase, Operation Restoring Hope. Though airstrikes continued today, Saudi and Houthi officials said they were nearing an arrangement to revive the country’s collapsed political dialogue. The promise of renewed talks has weakened the Houthis’ support, as their most powerful allies have come out in favor of negotiations. This includes Iran, which has provided limited support to the Houthis, but which reports indicate had little influence over the organization. The United States has pressured Saudi Arabia to wind down its air campaign, and must now provide guidance in the new diplomatic phase, ensuring an inclusive process that corrects the worst mistakes of 2011 that precipitated the current conflict.
The Saudi intervention in Yemen has been a violent and costly blunder. The World Health Organization warned yesterday that the conflict in Yemen has killed at least 944 people over the last month, and wounded thousands more. Yemen’s healthcare resources have been stretched past their breaking point, and the blockade of Yemen’s coast has limited civilians’ access to food and fuel supplies. The campaign’s ill-defined objectives led to an array of strikes with no clear purpose and little demonstrable effect – but this same lack of clarity has served to allow Saudi Arabia to wind down its air campaign on the pretext that it has achieved its purpose. The United States reportedly pressured Saudi officials to shift toward a political track before yesterday’s announcement of the end of Operation Decisive Storm, and Administration officials have cited the high “collateral damage” and the limits of the Saudi air campaign’s ability to influence the conflict in press reports.
Iran’s role in Yemen refutes claims that Iran is “on the march” and pursuing hegemonic ambitions in the Middle East. It has become a regular refrain among Iran hawks in Washington that Iran is trying to expand its reach in the Middle East, and several members of Congress have claimed that Iran now controls five capitals in the region. This talking point doesn’t hold up to scrutiny: Iran isn’t taking over Iraq and Syria – rather, for the first time it must fight to keep these countries in its sphere of influence. It has even less of a role in Yemen, where intelligence officials now say that Iran actually advised the Houthis against seizing the capital of Sanaa last September; as one told the Huffington Post, “It’s wrong to think of the Houthis as a proxy force for Iran.” While Iran has provided support to the Houthis, it does not control them, and it certainly does not control Yemen. [Huffington Post, 4/20/15]
The Houthis’ strength is slipping as their most important allies abandon them for dialogue. The Houthis’ ascent was facilitated by ousted President Ali Abdullah Saleh, whose support among the Yemeni military was decisive in their march from Saada to Aden. But Saleh is now supporting dialogue, posting a statement on social media: “We hope that everybody will return to dialogue to solve and treat all the issues…We hope this will mark the end of the option of force, violence and bloodshed and a start for reviewing accounts and correcting mistakes.” Saleh has broken agreements before, but he can be counted on to look out for his own interests. Now that he’s reestablished himself as a political player, he’s best served by supporting the national dialogue. Iran also has voiced it support for the resumption of political talks. Last week, Iranian officials proposed a plan for a ceasefire and negotiations, and expressed support for Saudi Arabia’s decision yesterday. “Positive developments in Yemen should be followed by urgent humanitarian assistance, intra-Yemeni dialogue and broad-based govt,” Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted, saying that Iran was “Ready to help.” [Ali Abdullah Saleh via Reuters, 4/22/15. Javad Zarif via BBC, 4/22/15]
The United States must continue to pressure Saudi Arabia to follow through on its commitment to dialogue and avoid the mistakes made in 2011. Yemen has tried to hold national political talks before, and their collapse precipitated the current violence. But President Obama is right when he said on Monday that “What we need to do is bring all the parties together and find a political arrangement.” That means cutting out spoilers at the outset – in contrast to the much-ballyhooed Gulf Initiative in 2011 that granted Saleh immunity and a continued political role when he stepped down from the presidency. As Laura Kasinof, former New York Times reporter in Yemen, writes, it will also mean reckoning honestly with the difficulties of political dialogue in the notoriously fractious country. From President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s accession to the presidency in 2012 through the Houthis’ seizure of the capital last fall, authorities papered over the threats to the political process with “overly sunny public rhetoric” to protect an artificial timeline. Serious concerns “were put on the back burner for the sake of pretending that the national dialogue was ‘a blueprint for building a more peaceful and prosperous Yemen.’” The United States will have to work with regional partners to ensure that this new attempt is both inclusive and flexible enough to succeed. [Barack Obama via New York Times, 4/21/15. Laura Kasinof via Foreign Policy, 4/20/15]
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